The 2017/18 U.S. rice crop is projected at 201.0 million cwt, a decline of 10 percent from a year earlier, a result of a 16-percent reduction in harvested area. In contrast, the average yield is projected at a record 7,716 pounds per acre.
Both domestic and residual use and U.S. exports are projected to be smaller in 2017/18. Ending stocks of 38.1 million cwt are projected to be 21 percent below a year earlier. Seasonaverage prices for both classes of rice are projected to be higher in 2017/18.
Domestic Outlook
U.S. 2017/18 Rice Crop Forecast at 201.0 Million Cwt The 2017/18 U.S. rice crop is forecast at 201.0 million cwt, down 10 percent from a year earlier. The production decline is due to a 17-percent reduction in planted area to 2.6 million acres.
In contrast, the 2017/18 yield is projected at a record 7,716 pounds per acre, an increase of 7 percent from a year earlier. The 2017/18 area forecast is from the March planting intentions reported by NASS. Actual plantings of the 2017/18 crop will be reported in the June Acreage report to be released on June 30.
The 2017/18 all-rice yield forecast was based on 1997/98-2016/17 trend yields by class, with production forecasts by class added to determine total rice production and average yield. Long-grain production is forecast at 142.0 million cwt, down 15 percent from a year earlier, a result of a substantial decline in plantings in the South.
The area decline was largely due to weak price expectations at planting and higher expected returns for soybeans. Almost all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South. Impacts from the devastating rains and flooding in the Delta–especially Arkansas–that began at the end of April are not included in either the yield or area forecasts.
Combined medium- and short-grain production is projected at 59.0 million cwt, up 2 percent from a year earlier, with little change in area or yield.
For the week ending May 7, planting of the 2017/18 U.S. rice crop was estimated to be 76-percent complete, 5 percentage points behind a year earlier, but 5 percentage points ahead of the U.S. 5-year average. Except for parts of the Gulf Coast, there has been little rice planting in the South this month.
In Arkansas, 92 percent of the 2017/18 rice crop was reported planted by May 7, unchanged from a year earlier but well ahead of the State’s 5-year average of 78 percent. However, from April 30 to May 7, just 3 percent of the Arkansas crop was planted.
In nearby Missouri, 68 percent of the crop was reported planted by May 7, well behind last year’s record of 97 percent and behind the State’s 5year average of 77 percent. Since April 30, just 1 percent of the Missouri crop was planted. In both Arkansas and Missouri, the number of days suitable for field work from May 1 to May 7 was slightly more than 1.
In Mississippi, 84 percent of the crop was reported planted by May 7, ahead of both 78 percent a year earlier and the State’s 5-year average of 65 percent. Like the other Delta States, little planting occurred the first week of May in Mississippi due to heavy rains and flooding, with days suitable for working reported as 2.4.
On the Gulf Coast, Louisiana’s 2017/18 crop was reported 96 percent planted, ahead of both 87 percent last year and the State’s 5-year average of 92 percent. Just 3 percent was planted in the first week of May, as days suitable for field work were reported at 2.7.
The Texas rice crop was reported 82 percent planted through May 7, 3 percentage points behind last year and 5 percentage points behind the State’s 5-year average. About 6 percent of the Texas rice crop was planted during the first week of May, with days suitable for field work reported at 6.
Crop progress in California remains well behind normal. For the week ending May 7, just 3 percent of the California crop was planted, compared with 36 percent for both last year and the State’s 5-year average. California received abnormally high rainfall this winter, with snowpacks in the Sierra Nevada reported at nearly double normal levels.
Emergence of the 2017/18 U.S. crop was ahead of normal. For the week ending May, 65 percent of the crop had emerged, unchanged from a year earlier but 6 percentage points ahead of the U.S. 5-year average.
In Arkansas, 77 percent of the crop had emerged by May 7, behind last year’s pace of 80 percent but well ahead of the State’s 5-year average of 58 percent.
The Missouri crop was reported 54 percent emerged by May 7, well behind last year’s record of 84 percent but slightly ahead of the State’s 5-year average of 51 percent.
Mississippi’s 2017/18 crop was reported 70 percent emerged by May 7, ahead of 63 percent a year earlier and the State’s average of 50 percent.
The Louisiana 2017/18 crop was reported 93 percent emerged by May 7, ahead of 80 percent last year and the State’s average of 84 percent.
In Texas, 76 percent of the crop had emerged by May 7, behind the 79 percent for both last year and the State’s 5-year average.
None of the California crop had emerged by May 7, compared with a 5-year average of 11 percent.
In 2017/18, total U.S. rice supplies are forecast at 273.1 million cwt, 7 percent smaller than a year earlier. The smaller supplies are due to a 23.1-million cwt reduction in the crop size. Beginning stocks of 48.1 million cwt are 3.5 percent larger than a year earlier.
Imports are forecast at 24 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from 2016/17 but below the 2014/15 record of 24.6 million cwt. Thailand typically supplies more than 60 percent of U.S. rice imports.
Long-grain total rice supplies in 2017/18 are forecast at 191.7 million cwt, almost 9 percent below a year earlier, a result of a 24.5-million cwt decline in production. In contrast, beginning stocks of 28.7 million cwt are up 26 percent from a year earlier.
Forecast imports of 21.0 million cwt are up 0.5 million cwt from 2016/17. Total supplies of medium- and short-grain rice are forecast at 78.6 million cwt, down 3.0 million cwt from 2016/17, a result of a smaller carryin. The 2017/18 medium- and short-grain crop is forecast to be 1.3 million cwt above a year earlier. Imports, forecast at 3.0 million cwt, are unchanged from a year earlier.
Both Exports and Domestic and Residual Use Projected Smaller in 2017/18
Total use of U.S. rice in 2017/18 is projected at 235.0 million cwt, 11.0 million cwt below a year earlier. In 2017/18, both domestic use (including a residual component) and exports are projected to be smaller than a year earlier. At 125.0 million cwt, total domestic and residual use in 2017/18 is forecast to drop 5 percent from a year earlier.
Long-grain domestic and residual use is projected at 95.0 million cwt, 7 percent below a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain domestic use is projected at 30.0 million cwt, unchanged from a year earlier.
Total U.S. rice exports in 2017/18 are projected at 110.0 million cwt, down 4.0 million cwt from a year earlier. Rough rice exports are projected at 45.0 million cwt, 2 million from a year earlier but still the second highest on record.
This strong rough-rice export forecast is based on another year of solid sales to Mexico, South America, Central America, and the Mediterranean. Milled exports (combined milled and brown rice exports on a rough basis) are projected at 65.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million from a year earlier.
Thus far in 2016/17, the United States has shipped very little milled rice outside the core U.S. markets of Northeast Asia, Saudi Arabia, Haiti, and Canada.
By class, long-grain exports are projected at 76.0 million cwt, down 3.0 million cwt from a year earlier. The smaller long-grain export forecast is based on tighter supplies and higher prices. Medium- and short-grain exports of 34.0 million cwt are down 1.0 million cwt from this year.
Northeast Asia, primarily Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, is again expected to be the largest market for U.S. medium- and short-grain rice. These purchases are nearly all made as part of WTO agreements. North Africa and the Middle East account for most of the remaining U.S. medium- and short-grain exports. Canada and Oceania purchase smaller amounts.
U.S. 2017/18 ending stocks are projected at 38.1 million cwt, 10.0 million below a year earlier. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 16.2 percent, down from 19.6 percent a year earlier. Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 20.7 million cwt, down 8.0 million from a year earlier.
The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 12.1 percent, down from 15.8 percent a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast at 14.6 million cwt, 2.0 million cwt below a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 22.8 percent, down from 25.5 million cwt a year earlier.
U.S. Season-Average Farm Prices Projected Higher in 2017/18
The 2017/18 long-grain season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $10.20-$11.20 per cwt, up from a revised $9.50-$9.90 in 2016/17. The 2016/17 long-grain SAFP was lowered 10 cents on both ends of the range this month, mostly based on cash prices through March reported by NASS and expectations regarding prices the remainder of the market year.
The California medium- and short-grain 2017/18 SAFP is forecast at $13.10-$14.10, up from a revised $13.10-$13.70 in 2016/17. The 2016/17 California medium- and short-grain prices were lowered 20 cents on both the high and low ends of the range.
The southern medium- and short-grain 2017/18 SAFP is forecast at $10.50$11.50 per cwt, up from $9.80-$10.20 a year earlier. The 2017/18 U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP is forecast at $12.30-$13.30 per cwt, up from a revised $12.10-$12.70 in 2016/17.
The 2016/17 U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP was lowered 10 cents on each end due to the weaker California SAFP. The U.S. all-rice 2017/18 SAFP is projected at $10.70-$11.70 per cwt, up from a revised $10.20-$10.60 per cwt in 2016/17. The 2016/17 all rice SAFP was lowered 10 cents on both the high and low ends of the range.
In April, USDA reported a long-grain monthly average cash price for March of $9.39 per cwt, down 3 cents from February and the lowest since USDA first reported monthly cash prices by class in August 2008.
The California March medium- and short-grain cash price was reported at $12.50 per cwt, down 90 cents from February and the lowest since USDA began reporting medium- and short-grain prices by region in 2013/14.
The southern medium- and short-grain price was reported at $10.30 per cwt in March, up 35 cents from February. The March U.S. medium- and short-grain price was reported at $11.90 per cwt, unchanged from February. The all-rice March price was reported at $9.97 per cwt, up 16 cents from February.
There were no supply side changes to the 2016/17 U.S. balance sheet. On the use side, the 2016/17 U.S. export forecast was raised 1.0 million cwt to 114.0 million cwt, 6 percent larger than a year earlier and the highest since 2005/06. All of the increase was for long-grain rough-rice.
The upward revision was based on shipments through March reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, shipments and sales reported by weekly U.S. Export Sales through late April, and expectations regarding shipments the remainder of the marketing year.
Through late April, U.S. long-grain rough rice sales and shipments have been especially strong to Mexico, Central America, and South America. The higher export forecast lowered the 2016/17 ending stocks forecast 2 percent to 48.1 million cwt.
