Global Markets: Coarse Grains – Abundant Supplies Support Demand

    For 2017/18, global corn production is projected down from last year’s record due largely to smaller crops in the United States and China. Global consumption outpaces production as demand expands in light of tighter availabilities for other feed grains, mainly barley and sorghum. Global trade is forecast higher boosted by expectations of strong demand growth. Global ending stocks fall sharply led by China and, to a lesser extent, the United States.

    Global production is forecast to fall from last year’s record driven by smaller crops across all coarse grains – corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. Nevertheless, global consumption is expected to rise moderately as greater use of corn is expected to supplant demand for other coarse grains, particularly in Asia and MENA (Middle East and North Africa).

    An insatiable appetite for low-priced feed grains is expected to grow, driven by economic growth and rising populations. Reduced production coupled with greater consumption is expected to draw down global ending stocks from last year’s record.

    Global corn production is projected down from last year’s record largely due to reduced crops in the United States and China. Global consumption is set to outpace production as large beginning stocks is projected to make corn a very affordable feedstuff. Competitive prices and projected record supplies in South America are expected to boost global trade year-over-year.

    Global ending stocks are projected to fall for the first time since 2010/11, primarily driven by China, where the government actively promotes the use of domestic corn for feed and industrial purposes.

    World barley production is expected to drop significantly with reduced crops for Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. Australia’s 2017/18 crop is expected to return to normal conditions after a record harvest the preceding year.

    Global trade is forecast lower with less exportable supplies and prospects for higher prices. Saudi Arabia will continue as the world’s largest importer; China is the second largest, importing for both feed and malting purposes. Smaller global imports are expected to be led by subdued demand in China, where competitively priced domestic supplies are expected to limit feed grain imports.

    Global sorghum production is forecast lower as declines for Argentina, India, and the United States more than offset gains for Australia, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Mexico. Global trade is forecast lower on reduced demand in China, the top importer, along with relatively tighter supplies in exporting countries.

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