Trade is mixed at midday with soybeans leading.
Corn trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with trade finding some light buying ahead of the report with the forecast shifting a bit wetter in the near term. Yesterday the weekly progress report had planting progress at 47% complete versus the 52% average and 61% a year ago. Emergence is at 15% versus the 19% average. No real surprise on the numbers.
Ethanol margins will likely continue to struggle in the near term with the energy complex remaining near year lows, and futures have edged a bit lower this morning. Corn basis is expected to remain steady to firm this week with farmers getting back in the fields. More wet weather could keep shipping issues present in the Ohio and Mississippi valleys.
In the bigger picture the lower prices and wet start to the planting season in areas will work against corn acres. The monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) are due out on Wednesday, with expectations for old crop carryout at 2.331 billion bushels, and new at 2.135 billion.
The July chart support is at the $3.60 3/4 4-month low. Resistance is at the $3.74 100-day moving average.
Soybean trade is 6 to 9 cents higher at midday with meal action supporting the complex. Meal is $4 to $5 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. The weekly progress report listed soybean planting at 15% versus the 17% 5-year average. Basis has remained fairly steady with good nearby demand.
Strong movement and sales competition is expected to continue from South America as we move into summer. The WASDE report is expected to show old crop carryout at 441 million bushels, and new crop at 566 million. July soybean chart support is the 20-day at 9.63 then the $9.41 April low. Resistance is at the 50-day at 9.86.
Wheat trade is 1 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade drifting lower with little major action ahead of the report. The winter wheat progress number had 50% of the crop heading versus the 46% average pace.
Crop conditions were down 1% to 53% good to excellent; with the HRW belt states showing bigger declines which we offset with better conditions elsewhere. Spring wheat planting is at 54% versus the 60% 5-year average with emergence at 21% versus the 29% average.
Wet weather looks to linger for the storm damaged areas of the west, which could enhance disease issues. The Dakotas should have made good progress this week reducing concerns about spring wheat but some areas remain dry so conditions may start out well below year ago levels. The report is expected to show carryout at 1.163 billion on old crop, 935 million bushels on new, with production at 1.859 billion for all wheat.
On the July Kansas City contract support is the morning low at $4.39 below that and the 50-day at 4.48 above that as resistance.
The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures flat. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 45 higher. Energies are mixed with crude down 0.60. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold $9.00 lower.