May corn posted its lowest close in 2017 while May soybeans fell to its lowest close in five months as grain prices continue to suffer under the weight of favorable crop and harvest weather. May K.C. wheat fell to its lowest close in 11 weeks with rain headed toward the southwestern U.S. Plains.
Midday: Trade is slightly lower at midday.
Corn trade is flat to 2 cents lower in quiet midday trade with the market continuing to chop around range bound. The weekly ethanol production report showed production off 0.10%, and stocks were down 0.75%, and gasoline demand was down 0.58% with ethanol futures edging slightly lower today.
Corn basis is expected to remain steady with bushels moving ahead of spring fieldwork, although the incoming rain could turn focus back to corn movement. South America does not have any major weather issues for corn in the near term picture with early double-crop corn progress continuing to move along.
The chart picture remains negative in the short term with trade testing the low end of the range. The weekly export sales were strong at 1.35 million metric tons of old crop and 127,100 of new crop.
On the May chart support nearby support is the overnight low at $3.57 then the $3.52 late December low. Resistance is the 10-day at $3.62, then the 200-day at $3.68 1/2.
Soybean trade is 2 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade looking to retest the lower end of the range. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 lower and oil 15 to 25 points higher. South America looks to continue normal progress in the near term with any weather issues limited. Crush margins will need to improve to drive basis improvement as the export program slows seasonally with oil holding up better than meal in this week.
The strength in the Real has supported US export competitiveness, which should limit near term downside despite rising production estimates from Brazil. The weekly export sales were strong at 738,200 metric tons of old crop, 79,900 of new, 134,300 of old crop meal, 26,100 of new meal, and 15,300 of oil.
On the May soybean chart support is at the $9.92 low printed on last week, resistance is at the 10-day and lowest major moving average at $10.02.
Wheat trade is mixed at midday with Minneapolis showing the most strength while the heavier rain seems to have shifted out of western Kansas for the near term. New lows have been made in Kansas City trade by another 2 cents this morning. The recent warmer weather has stressed the crop on the Plains but concerns are limited at the moment with the rains expected to limit damage.
The dollar remains below the 100 mark on the index this morning, which is supportive. The weekly export sales were OK at 418,500 metric tons of old crop, and 149,800 of new. The protein spreads are favoring Minneapolis trade overnight.
On the May Kansas City contract support is the recent low at $4.29, with resistance the 100-day at $4.43.