U.S. wheat imports for 2016/17 are reduced this month by 10 million bushels to 115 million. Ending stocks are projected lower by the same amount to 1,129 million bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged with the midpoint of the range at $3.85 per bushel.
Internationally, global production increased 2.8 million tons to 751.1 million, mainly due to larger crops in Argentina and Australia more than offsetting a slight reduction in the European Union. Australia’s 2016/17 wheat production is raised 2.0 million tons to a record-large 35.0 million.
USDA model-based analysis of weather data estimates Australia’s yield in line with the latest Australia Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) estimate. Projected exports are increased for both Australia and Argentina on their larger supplies while Canada’s exports are reduced on a sluggish export pace.
Global imports are raised this month led by India, which was raised 1.8 million tons to 5.5 million. This would be the largest wheat import total for India since 2006/07; India stocks have successively declined since 2012/13.
Despite higher projected global use, driven by India, 2016/17 global ending stocks are increased by 1.3 million tons to 249.9 million.