DTN Grain Midday: Wheat Supported by Exports

    Row crops lower at midday; wheat is mixed with support from a good weekly export sales number.


    Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday which has us near the daily lows. Trade has been around unchanged to lower since the open last night. Ethanol margins are gaining back a little today with corn lower and ethanol up a penny. It has been a very poor month for margins; most of the trade expect slightly weekly reductions in production until margins turn, or confirm a bottom.

    The weekly export sales were strong at 1.37 million metric tons which has limited downside. The lower dollar this month has helped find some business, but the dollar strength today is not the best. South American weather is still noted as concerning but overall production weather is still viewed as normal as an aggregate with no major production decline expected versus the latest estimates.

    On the March corn chart support is at the 20-day moving average at $3.60, resistance is at the 200-day at $3.69 3/4.


    Soybean trade is 5 to 10 cents lower at midday with light chart pressure. Futures broke below the 10-day and the $10.50 area a short while ago. Meal is $1 to $2 lower and oil is 60 points lower. Trade will continue to watch the South American weather forecasts with follow-up rains needed in the dry areas of Argentina. More rain is showing up in forecasts six to seven days out.

    Wet weather is expected to slow early harvest in Brazil, and could cause some additional quality issues. The weekly export sales were mixed with 539,400 metric tons of old crop soybeans, 126,000 of new, 276,800 of meal, and 49,500 of oil.

    On the March soybean chart support is at the $10.33 20-day, then the $10.14 200-day. Resistance is now at the 10-day moving average at $10.58, then the $10.80 high.


    Wheat trade is mixed at midday with spillover pressure from the row crops offsetting the strong export sales. The dollar is sharply higher this morning which is limiting the upside as well. Futures are continuing to grind along and are finding trading range off our recent highs. The weekly export sales were very strong at 853,400 of old crop and 103,900 of new, which was the highest level in some time.

    Spillover support from the row crops bulled wheat to multi-month highs just over a week ago. We are now testing some chart support. It appears more than one week of good sales numbers may be needed to help wheat futures from slipping.

    The March Kansas City $4.35 20-day moving average is chart support with resistance at the $4.57 200-day moving average.

    General Comments

    The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 40. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 65 points higher. Energies are higher with crude up $0.95. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are lower with gold down $11.

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