There were no 2016/17 supply side revisions this month to the U.S. rice balance sheet. Total supplies remain projected at a record 304.7 million cwt. The only revision on the use side was a 1.0-million cwt switch from milled-rice exports to rough-rice exports. At 59.7 million cwt, U.S. 2016/17 ending stocks are projected to be the highest since 1985/86. The California medium- and short-grain seasonaverage farm prices was lowered to $13.50 per cwt.
Domestic Outlook
U.S. 2016/17 Rice Supplies Projected Record-High
There were no supply side revisions to the U.S. 2016/17 rice balance sheet this month. Production remains projected at 234.8 million cwt, up 22 percent from a year earlier and the second highest on record. The bumper crop is due to a 22-percent increase in planted area to 3.18 million acres.
The average yield of 7,493 pounds per acre is up 23 pounds from a year earlier. U.S. 2016/17 long-grain production is forecast 176.1 million cwt, up 32 percent from a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain production remains forecast at 58.7 million cwt, 1 percent below a year earlier.
U.S. harvested area in 2016/17 was higher than the previous year in all reported States, with Arkansas and California accounting for two-thirds of the 558,000-acre U.S. increase. In contrast, yields are estimated to be lower than a year earlier in all reported States except California and Texas, where yields are projected to be record-high.
Production is estimated to be higher than a year earlier in all reported rice growing States, with Arkansas and California accounting for 63 percent of the 42.4-million-cwt increase in production in 2016/17.
Total U.S. supplies of rice are forecast at 304.7 million cwt, up 15 percent from a year earlier and the highest on record. Long-grain supplies are forecast at 219.3 million cwt, up 22 percent from a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain supplies are projected at 82.6 million cwt, up 1 percent from a year earlier.
Total imports remain forecast at 23.5 million cwt, down nearly 3 percent from a year earlier and the second consecutive year of decline. This year’s decline is based on much larger U.S. supplies. Beginning stocks in 2016/17 remain estimated at 46.5 million cwt, down 4 percent from a year earlier.
Forecasts for 2016/17 U.S. total rice use, domestic and residual use, and total exports are unchanged from a month earlier. However, there was another consecutive 1.0-million cwt switch from milled rice to rough-rice exports.
At 42.0 million cwt, U.S. 2016/17 rough-rice exports are up 1 million from last month and 10 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record. The 1.0-million-cwt increase in the rough-rice export forecast was based on stronger than expected sales to Latin America.
At 70.0 million cwt, the 2016/17 milled rice export forecast (combined milled and brown rice exports on a rough-rice basis) is down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but nearly unchanged from a year earlier.
The 1.0-million-cwt downward revision in the milled-rice export forecast is based on a continued lack of significant sales outside the core U.S. export markets of Northeast Asia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Haiti. There were no revisions to U.S. exports by class this month.
U.S. 2016/17 ending stocks remain forecast at 59.7 million cwt, up 29 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 1985/86. Long-grain ending stocks of 37.3 million cwt are up 64 percent from a year earlier and also the highest since 1985/86.
In contrast, medium- and short-grain ending stocks of 19.6 million cwt are down 6 percent from a year earlier.
U.S. Season-Average Farm Price for California Medium- and Short-Grain Rice Lowered
Last month, USDA’s National Agricultural Service reported an October 2016 long-grain rough-rice price of $9.69 per cwt, down 29 cents from a month earlier and the lowest since August 2007 when USDA first reported rough-rice prices by class. The California medium- and short-grain October price was lowered $2.20 per cwt to $14.00 per cwt.
In contrast, the October southern medium- and short-grain price of $10.40 per cwt was up 84 cents from September. The U.S. medium- and short-grain rough rice price was reported at $12.30 per cwt in October, unchanged from September. The October all-rice rough-rice price was reported at $10.30 per cwt, down 20 cents from September.
The U.S. all-rice 2016/17 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $9.90-$10.90 per cwt, down 20 cents on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast and below $12.10 in 2015/16. The U.S. long-grain 2016/17 SAFP remains projected at $9.20-$10.20 per cwt, down from $11.10 in 2015/16.
The California medium- and short-grain SAFP of $13.00-$14.00 per cwt is down $1.50 on both the high and low ends from the previous forecast and well below the 2015/16 SAFP of $18.30. The downward revision was based on monthly reported cash prices through October and expectations regarding prices the remainder of the market year.
The Southern medium- and short-grain 2016/17 SAFP remains forecast at $9.20-$10.20 per cwt, below $11.20 a year earlier. The U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP was lowered $1.00 on both ends to $11.90-$12.90 per cwt, down from $15.30 a year earlier. The downward revision was due to the lower California SAFP forecast.
