DTN Grain Midday: Chart Buying Remains Supportive

    ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

    Chart buying is still a supportive force for beans with Argentine weather limiting sellers.


    Corn trade is a penny lower and very slow, the trading range since last night up to midday is 2 1/2 cents. Outside markets are lightly negative at midday with the higher dollar with lower crude and stocks. Chart comments are dominating the news along with South America weather. Brazil and Argentina are in key weather weeks now for corn.

    Argentine heat is not liked by the market which limited selling. Granted a good portion of Argentina has been wet and can use the heat, other areas will go downhill. Shallow rooted corn could also quickly go to being stressed if the heat persists into next week. It looks like a lot will ride on the weather forecasts 8-14 days out.

    If moisture shows up then it should relieve concerns and the market give back some weather premium. For right now the market saw a positive chart move yesterday, a slow and lightly lower trade is still good following the move to new highs for the move on Tuesday.

    On the March corn chart support is at the $3.60 10-day moving average then the 20-day at $3.55. Resistance is at the $3.69 6-month high followed by the $3.70 200-day moving average.


    Soybean trade is a nickel higher on nearby March to 9 cents higher on November new crop at midday after mostly lower trade overnight and this morning. Meal is $8 off its lows with midday net changes around $1 to $2 a ton higher and soybean oil is up 10-18 points. The high today on March is two cents higher than yesterday; this is 80 cents above the low printed last Monday.

    Argentine production forecasts are dropping to 50-53 million metric tons versus the USDA 57 million ton number last week. The recent crop damage and production expectations declines are due to areas that are both too wet, and to dry in the South. The weather is receiving the most attention which should continue.

    On the March soybean chart support is at the 10-day and highest major moving average at $10.28. The high today at $10.77 1/4 is resistance and a 6-month high. The next level of resistance would be the $11 area; then the March futures high last June at$11.35.


    Wheat trade is mixed at midday with Minneapolis up 6 cents, Kansas City down a penny and Chicago down 3 cents. The row crops were limiting upside overnight but beans are starting to provide some spillover support again. The weekly export inspections were only 344,436 tons yesterday and better demand news is needed.

    The chart picture may continue to generate some short covering this week. In the big picture the USDA numbers were mixed last week with bearish stocks numbers but a lower than expected winter wheat seedings number. The lower winter wheat seedings illustrates the economics of low prices is starting to work; it is discouraging production. The problem is world supplies are so large a small reduction in production will still leave large world and domestic carryover stocks.

    The March Kansas City chart support is at the $4.40 10-day moving average, resistance is at the $4.59 200-day moving average.

    General Comments

    The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the DOW futures down 35. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 45 points higher. Energies are lower with crude down $.40. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are flat.

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