DTN Grain Close: Soybeans, Wheat Respond to Higher USDA

    Soybean harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

    March soybeans closed up 28 3/4 cents at its highest close in three weeks, a sign of how relieved traders were to not see a higher crop estimate on Thursday. March Kansas City wheat posted its highest close in four months after USDA estimated the smallest planting of winter wheat since 1909.


    Lightly lower trade was seen at midday ahead of USDA numbers.


    Corn trade is has seen a mixed 4 cent trading range since last night; at midday we are steady. The weekly export sales were neutral to negative coming in 603,300 tons, but a lower dollar today has limited downside. All midday eyes are on the USDA reports.

    The January USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is expected to show the domestic carryover at 2.396 billion bushels versus 2.403 billion on the December report; 2.2-2.8 billion is the range of estimates. The world 2016-17 corn carryover is expected to come in at 221.9 million metric ton versus 222.3 on the December report.

    The range of estimates is 218-225 mmt. The 2016 Production/Final market estimate is 15.198 billion versus 15.226 on the November report which is behind the slightly lower domestic carryover expectation. The December 1 Quarterly stocks are expected to come in at 12.358 billion which is up from 11.238 billion a year ago; the range of estimates is 11.7-12.5 billion.

    On the March corn chart support is at the $3.51 100-day moving average with resistance at the $3.62 3/4 January high.


    Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday, but we have been actively on both sides of unchanged with position squaring. Meal is fractionally lower and soybean oil down 15 points. The market has been moving sideways in the lower part of our winter range ready to react to any USDA surprises.

    The weekly export sales were a low at 348,900 tons but the lower dollar has limited downside. WASDE expectations are for the world carryover to move down slightly to 82.5 million metric tons versus 82.9 on the December report, the range of estimates is 79.6 to 84.8 mmt.

    The domestic 2016-17 carryover is expected to still slip down though, down to 468 million bushels versus the 480 million on the December report. The US production estimate is expected to come in at 4.38 billion versus 4.361 billion on the November report. So the good demand is expected to provide higher usage numbers. The Dec 1 quarterly soybean stocks are expected to be at 2.951 billion versus 2.715 billion a year ago.

    On the March chart support is at $10, then the $9.97 100-day with resistance at the $10.17 20-day, then the $10.21 50-day.


    Wheat trade is interesting at midday with Minneapolis up 9, Chicago up 2 and Kansas City down a penny. The spring wheat Minneapolis contract continues to hold a positive chart trend, while the winter wheat contracts now appear to be moving sideways. The trend is your friend today.

    The weekly export sales were only 391,000 tons, so we should not be surprised for the slow sales pace to lead to a 25 million bushel export decline on the USDA 2016-17 usage. The domestic carryover is expected to be at 1.148 billion versus 1.143 billion last month.

    The USDA monthly report is expected to show the world carryover at 251.9 million metric ton versus 252.1 on the last report. The Dec 1 Quarterly Stocks are expected to be at 2.044 billion versus 1.746 billion a year ago. The All winter wheat seedings estimate is expected to be at 34.2 million acres down from 36.1 a year ago; the range of estimates is 31.7-36.4.

    On the Kansas City March chart, support is at the $4.30 100-day then the $4.19 20-day, resistance is at the $4.39 2-month high printed on Monday.

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