After two weeks of yo-yo trading, March soybeans closed up 10 1/2 cents Monday, holding support again above its November low while traders monitor crops in Brazil. Corn and wheat prices also finished higher with help from Monday’s export sales announcements.
There was slow midday mixed trade to start out the week with mixed South American weather ideas.
Corn trade is a penny lower at midday; the trading range has been 2 higher overnight to 2 cents lower a short while ago. The chart close for corn last week was good which gave us some chart buying last night, but the lower crude trade appears to be pulling corn lower. The weekly export inspections were neutral at 876,562 tons.
The USDA monthly report is out on Thursday; it will be the main news out this week. No major changes are expected so the report should be a bearish influence as it reminds the market of our large supply side situation. The mixed action today also illustrates the mixed views of South American production weather which has a little bit of everything, but in the big picture no one is expecting any sharp production changes.
On the March corn chart support is at the $3.55 20-day moving average, then the $3.51 100-day and lowest major moving average. Resistance is at $3.65 which is the upper Bollinger band as well as the area of our two-month high.
Soybean trade is up 3 to 4 cents at midday, meal is up $1 and bean oil is up 20 points. Outside market influence is negative, and South American weather is noted as mixed by most traders. The weekly soybean inspections were again big at 1,457,230 tons.
The report on Thursday should have the market going into it without a big move today through Thursday morning. The move last week was negative but beans appear to have support at the low end of our winter trading range.
On the March chart we challenged support at the $9.96 100-day moving average Friday and overnight. The 100-day is the lowest major moving average. The low last Tuesday at $9.92 3/4 is the next level of notable chart support under the 100-day then the $9.83 3/4 two-month low. Chart resistance is at the $10.07 200-day then the $10.21 20-day moving average.
Wheat trade is fractionally lower to 3 cents higher at midday. The higher chart trend for wheat remains intact which most are pointing to for the mostly higher midday markets. Meaning there is limited fresh news to drive the futures higher other than the chart. The chart move above the 100-day moving average and close above it on Thursday then again on Friday is Kansas City positive technical event.
The 100-day is now support at $4.31 on the Kansas City March contract. Resistance is at the $4.45 4-month high. Fundamentally it is hard to be friendly, but the longer-term lows are attracting bargain buyers. The USDA report on Thursday will confirm large world supplies.