Global production for 2015/16 is estimated to plunge 86,000 metric tons (tons) from the previous year to 529,000 as U.S. output declines and more than offsets a jump in Turkish production. As a result of lower available supplies, world consumption and ending stocks are expected to fall. Global exports are estimated down 54,000 tons to 280,000 tons primarily due to lower shipments from the United States.
U.S. production is estimated to be down by nearly half from the previous year to just 122,000 tons, the smallest crop harvested in nearly a decade. In addition to yields being in the off-year cycle of the crop’s alternate-bearing nature, lack of chill hours in the winter of 2015/16 and the drought contributed to below-average yields.
Although the season started with record-high beginning stocks, the steep output drop has limited the ability of the industry to meet demand. Exports are estimated to drop 58,000 tons to 80,000 on lower shipments to top markets China and the European Union (EU).
Iran’s off-year production is estimated to decrease 20,000 tons to 210,000 primarily on lower yield in the top-producing province of Kerman as bearing area for the country remains unchanged. Exports are estimated nearly unchanged at 190,000 tons on steady trade to China, EU and Turkey. Consumption is expected to decrease as a result of the smaller harvest.
Although Turkey’s production is estimated to jump 45,000 tons to 130,000, it will have limited effect on trade as almost the entire harvest is consumed domestically. After rising 2 consecutive years, imports are expected to drop to 10,000 tons.
China’s imports are estimated to ease 12,000 tons to 70,000 following several years of growth. Shanghai and Beijing are key markets for U.S. pistachios, whereas other cities prefer more competitively-priced imports from Iran.
EU imports are expected nearly unchanged at 70,000 tons, with the United States supplies the majority.
Global almond production for 2015/16 is estimated to increase 22,000 tons from the previous year to 1.1 million metric tons due to increased output in the United States. With world consumption rising at a higher rate than production, ending stocks are expected to fall 7,000 tons to 219,000. Global exports are expected to decline 4,000 tons to 656,000 mostly due to lower shipments from Australia.
- The United States gains 14,000 tons to 862,000 on increased bearing acreage.
- Australia is just 2,000 tons higher at 77,000 as area expansion slows.
- The United States is up 4,000 tons to 580,000 on stronger demand in the EU and China.
- Australia is down 8,000 tons to 50,000 tons primarily on lower shipments to the United Arab Emirates.
- United Arab Emirates falls 25,000 tons to 36,000 on weaker-than-anticipated demand.
- Japan drops 6,000 tons to 32,000 as consumption slows.
- EU rebounds 23,000 tons to 265,000 on record consumption.
Global walnut production for 2015/16 is estimated to rise 155,000 tons from the previous year to 2.0 million tons, with China and the United States accounting for over 75 percent of total output. World exports, dominated by the United States, Chile, and Ukraine, are expected to increase 73,000 tons to 684,000 tons.
- China rises 100,000 tons to 1.0 million primarily on higher bearing area.
- The United States gains nearly 30,000 tons to a record 547,000 on higher bearing area and yield.
- The United States is up 75,000 tons to a record 460,000 on higher demand in top markets EU and China.
- Ukraine advances just 3,000 tons to 63,000. Exports, once dominated by shipments to Russia, struggle to gain market share in the EU and China.
- Chile slips 2,000 tons to 75,000 on reduced market share in the EU and Turkey.
- EU is up 28,000 tons to 215,000 on rising demand in Germany, Italy, and Spain from snack foods and cooking ingredients on the retail side and pastries on the industrial side.
- Turkey gains 17,000 tons to 85,000 as domestic production remains below the long-term average.
- China rises 14,000 tons to 85,000 after falling the previous 2 years.