The U.S. 2015/16 rice supply and use is changed very little from a month ago. The all rice import forecast is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 24.5 million, all in long-grain, as the pace to date is slower than expected. No changes are made to 2015/16 use. All rice domestic and residual use and exports are forecast at 127.0 million cwt and 98.0 million, respectively. All rice ending stocks are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 38.8 million, all in long-grain. Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 20.8 million cwt and medium- and short-grain stocks at 16.1 million.
The 2015/16 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $11.50 to $12.50 per cwt, unchanged from last month. The medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.00 to $18.00 per cwt, down 60 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The California medium- and short-grain rice price, at a midpoint of $21.00 per cwt, is down 50 cents per cwt from last month. The Other States medium-and short-grain rice price, at a midpoint of $12.30 per cwt, is lowered 70 cents per cwt.
The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.10 to $14.10 per cwt, down 20 cents per cwt on each end of the range. Lower-than-expected prices published by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) for October along with price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year support the downward adjustment in rice prices from a month ago.
Global 2015/16 rice supplies are lowered more than the decline in use resulting in a reduction in ending stocks. This is the third consecutive year that global consumption exceeds production leading to a drawdown in world ending stocks. Global production is lowered 4.2 million tons to 469.3 million tons, down about 8.9 million tons from the preceding year, and the smallest crop since 2011/12.
Production forecasts are lowered for Australia, India, Madagascar, and the Philippines. The 2015/16 India crop is lowered 3.5 million tons to 100.0 million, the smallest crop since 2010/11. The reduction is due to a drop in expected Kharif rice production as early harvest reports indicate lower-than-expected yields across the northeastern rice growing region.
Additionally, the slow pace of plantings of the Rabi rice crop due mostly to dryness is expected to lower expected yields and production. Rice production in Australia is lowered 254,000 tons as area is lowered 36,000 hectares to 30,000 hectares. This is the smallest area in production since 2008/09.
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Rice production in the Philippines is lowered 250,000 tons to 11.3 million due to cyclone damage. The rice crop in Madagascar is lowered 256,000 tons to 2.4 million because of lower yields.
Global rice consumption for 2015/16 is lowered 1.6 million tons to 484.6 million tons, still a record. Consumption forecasts are lowered in India, Madagascar, Nigeria, Thailand, and Vietnam. Global exports are unchanged at 41.3 million as India is lowered and mostly offset by increases for Thailand and Vietnam.
Imports are lowered for Nigeria and the United States. World 2015/16 ending stocks are lowered 2.6 million tons to 88.4 million, largely due to decreases for India, Nigeria, and Thailand. Stocks are down 15.3 million tons from the preceding year and the smallest since 2007/08. The 2015/16 stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 18.2 percent, down from 21.5 in 2014/15, and the smallest since 17.9 percent in 2006/07.