USDA’s reported world market price values decreased over the past week, with the on-farm WMP value of long grain rough now reported at $9.25/hundredweight and the medium/short grain rough values at $9.50/hundredweight.
As the rice industry continues to revel in last week’s movements and digest the new harvest information coming in over the course of the current week, the market is generally waiting to see what the near term will bring from a pricing standpoint. Exports and sales were off for the week, but were still registered at respectable values as compared to earlier in the year. Asian pricing was off somewhat from prior weeks, and the USDA decreased its world market price.
Domestically, the market is beginning to see some price appreciation as the scale and scope of the harvest become more apparent. Meanwhile, the futures market has had a very positive run all things considered.
The futures market has continued to appreciate this week as the September ’15 contract leaves the board and the market rolls into the November ’15 as the nearby. The nearby contract has rallied throughout the week to close on yet another positive note which has been a welcome trend over the past several weeks. The nearby November ’15 contract closed on Friday at $12.95/hundredweight.
Weekly net gains ranged from 0.95% to 1.25% across the open contracts on the board, ending with a net positive week. The market ended the week with an average daily volume of 573.2 contracts and open interest of 10,709 as of Thursday’s trading.
The domestic market has been mostly stable over the week with some price appreciation across the board in response to recent market factors.
Texas has seen a very quiet week with the final lots of first crop being completed and most growers looking at second crop at this point. Second crop conditions are favorable and a good yield is necessary to help many growers boost their financial position to close out the year. New crop bids have escalated to $6.25-$6.50/hundredweight premiums over loan for conventional and hybrid varieties respectively.
Louisiana is likewise looking to second crop and reports indicate that a larger than normal second crop acreage is in the works. New crop pricing in the state has predominately moved to $12.34/hundredweight range in all but a few cases. There have been several lots traded at this level on the new crop harvest.
The harvest in Mississippi is being reported as 50% complete at this point. Field yields are varied between 6,000-8,000 pounds per acre range. With overall quality being reported as normal, new crop pricing has moved upwards to $12.00/hundredweight delivered to a loading facility.
The Arkansas harvest is also nearing the halfway mark to completion. Yields are estimated at this point to being off by between 5%-20% from last year. New crop bidding is around the $11.67/hundredweight level at the farm.
Missouri is slightly behind its neighbors to the South from a harvest standpoint with only about 20% of the acreage complete. As the crop progresses, pricing for new crop has increased to the $12.11/hundredweight level delivered to the river.
Export sales for the week decreased by about 48 percent from last weeks’ values with a reported 48,800 MT total. Increase from Japan (24,000 MT), Canada (6,800 MT), Panama (3,400 MT), Mexico (3,300 MT), and Honduras (3,000 MT) were partially offset by decreases to Costa Rica (200 MT). Sales were comprised of long grain rice with the exception of the Japanese purchase of medium/short grain.
Weekly vessel loadings were off by 22 percent at 74,300 MT. Primary destinations were Panama (28,900 MT), Libya (21,000 MT), South Korea (5,900 MT), Costa Rica (5,800 MT), and Saudi Arabia (3,400 MT). Loadings were composed of long grain except for the Libyan shipment which was of medium/short grain.
Asian prices were mostly down over the week. Price decreases were noted for Thai 100%B parboiled ($345/MT), Thai 100%B ($357/MT), Myanmar 5% ($421/MT), Myanmar 5% parboiled ($457/MT), and Pakistani 5% ($320/MT). A slight price increase was noted for Vietnamese 5% ($330/MT). Exchange rate fluctuations and currency valuation against the U.S. dollar are the primary drivers for this week movement. All prices are quoted in US Dollars and are f.o.b. vessel.