WASDE Wheat: Decreased U.S. Exports, Farm Prices

    Wheat harvest. Photo: Rome Ethredge

    Projected U.S. exports for 2015/16 are lowered 25 million bushels to 900 million on increased foreign supplies. Ending stocks are increased by the same amount to 875 million bushels, which are the largest since the 2009/10 crop year. The season-average farm price is lowered 20 cents on the high end to $4.65 to $5.35 per bushel. The reduction reflects increased competition for U.S. wheat and growing domestic stocks.

    Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 6.7 million tons, primarily on increased production in the EU and FSU. Partly offsetting are reductions in Canada and India. EU yields are significantly better than expected and the 2015 crop is now only 2.3 million tons below last year’s record. Partly offsetting are reductions in Canada and India.

    These production changes reflect harvest reports and updated government estimates to date. The global wheat crop is now projected at 731.6 million tons and the third consecutive record. World beginning stocks are up 1.6 million tons, led by a large increase for Canada as reported by Statistics Canada.

    World exports are higher with by far the biggest increase for the EU, which is raised 1.5 million tons on the much larger crop. Ukraine was raised 0.5 million tons also on a larger crop. Partially offsetting is a 0.7-million-ton reduction for the United States due to increased foreign competition. Global imports are up, with the biggest increases being 0.5 million tons for Brazil and 0.3 million tons for Philippines.

    EU imports are reduced 0.5 million tons and Indonesia is reduced 0.3 million tons. Global use is up 1.6 million tons on increased feed use, especially in the EU and Russia and the Philippines. Reductions in food use are partially offsetting. With supplies growing much faster than use, global ending stocks are raised 5.1 million tons to a record 226.6 million tons.

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