WASDE Wheat: Domestic Production Improves

    Wheat harvest. Photo: Rome Ethredge

    Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 58 million bushels this month on larger beginning stocks and production. A 10-million-bushel decrease in imports is partially offsetting. Production is raised on increased spring wheat production that more than offsets decreases for Hard Red Winter, Soft Red Winter, and White Wheat. Overall yields for spring wheat are forecast above average.

    Feed and residual use for all wheat in 2015/16 is raised 5 million bushels to 200 million on the larger crop. All wheat exports for 2015/16 are raised 25 million bushels to 950 million on increased U.S. supplies and reduced wheat production in Canada. These exports would be up 11 percent from the low level of 2014/15, but still well below the 5-year average.

    Ending stocks are raised 28 million bushels to 842 million, the largest since the 2010/11. Despite higher stocks, the season-average price is raised 35 cents to $4.75 to $5.75 per bushel on recently higher cash and futures prices and the rising outlook for corn prices, particularly in the summer months when a majority of this year’s wheat crop will be marketed.

    Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 12.1 million tons primarily on increased beginning stocks. China beginning stocks are raised 11.4 million tons on reductions to feed and residual use. China wheat feeding fell substantially starting with the 2013/14 market year as wheat prices became uncompetitive with corn.

    Partly offsetting is a 2.0-million-ton decrease for 2015/16 Australia beginning stocks mostly on a 1.6-million-ton revision to 2013/14 production as reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Foreign 2015/16 production is lowered slightly as increased production in the Black Sea region is more than offset by reductions for EU and Canada.

    Total world production is raised to 722.0 million tons; down from last year’s record but still the second largest.

    Global wheat consumption for 2015/16 is lowered 5.4 million tons primarily on the reduced feed and residual use for China. Canada and EU wheat feed and residual use are reduced 0.7 and 0.5 million tons, respectively. Partly offsetting is a 1.4-million-ton increase in India food use.

    Global wheat exports are lowered 0.3 million tons to 158.1 million, down nearly 4 percent from the previous year. The largest import reduction is for Iran, which is lowered 1.0 million tons on large supplies. EU imports are raised 1.0 million tons with the smaller crop and more expected imports of feed-quality wheat from Ukraine. China imports are raised 0.8 million tons on increased purchases.

    Exports are raised 1.0 million tons each for Russia and Ukraine on larger crops and less competition from EU. The largest exporter reductions are 1.5 million tons for EU and 1.0 million tons for Canada, both on smaller crops.

    Global ending stocks for 2015/16 are raised 17.4 million tons to a record 219.8 million tons, mostly reflecting the 17.2-million-ton increase in China.

    Full report.

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