Global production for 2014/15 is forecast at 608,000 metric tons, up 20 percent from the previous year as the United States, Iran and Turkey enter the on-year of the alternate bearing crop cycle. As a result of larger available supplies, world consumption and ending stocks are expected to rise. Global exports are forecast to increase 3 percent to 335,000 tons primarily due to continued growth in Turkey’s imports, with top markets China and the European Union (EU) expected flat. World consumption is forecast to rebound on gains in producing countries.
U.S. production is forecast nearly 10 percent higher to 233,000 tons due primarily to increased bearing area, with on-year yields only marginally higher than last year. Orchards needed irrigation due to drought conditions. Exports are forecast to drop 10 percent to 160,000 tons on strong competition from Iran as well as lackluster demand in the EU and China. Consumption is expected to rise on ample supplies.
Iran’s on-year production is forecast to surge nearly 30 percent to 220,000 tons on increased yield as bearing area remains unchanged. Exports are forecast up nearly 25 percent to a record 170,000 tons. Strong early-season shipments destined for China are expected to slow for the remainder of the year. Consumption is forecast to increase as a result of the larger harvest.
Although Turkey’s production is forecast to skyrocket 70 percent to 85,000 tons, it will have limited effect on trade as almost the entire harvest is consumed domestically. Imports are forecast to increase a second consecutive year to reach 20,000 tons.
China’s imports are forecast unchanged at 80,000 tons following several years of growth. Shanghai and Beijing are key markets for U.S. pistachios, whereas other cities prefer more competitively-priced imports from Iran.
EU imports are forecast nearly unchanged at 75,000 tons. The United States supplies a majority of the market and is its top market.
World production is revised up from the February 2014 estimate by 7,000 tons to 503,000.
- EU is raised 7,000 tons to 13,000 due to updated data.
World exports are raised 9,000 tons to 324,000.
- Iran is increased 3,000 tons to 138,000 on slightly higher volumes to China.
- United States is up 2,000 tons to 177,000.
World ending stocks are revised 6,000 tons higher to 56,000.
- United States is increased 6,000 tons to 35,000 on slower-than-anticipated consumption.