U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 5 million bushels higher as reduced exports more than offset an import reduction. Projected imports are lowered 20 million bushels to 160 million on pace to date. Projected exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 900 million due to increased competition from the European Union (EU) and the recent strengthening of the dollar (which makes U.S. exports less competitive). Ending stocks are increased to 692 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents on the low end and 15 cents on the high end to $5.85 to $6.15 per bushel. The reduction reflects prices received to date as well as a loss of competitiveness for U.S. wheat.
Domestic Outlook
2014 U.S. Winter Wheat Production Is Unchanged From January
The survey-based estimate of winter wheat production, at 1,378 million bushels, is unchanged from January but down 165 million bushels from 2013. Estimated 2014 harvested area is 32.3 million acres, down 0.3 million acres from 2013. The 2014 winter wheat yield is estimated at 42.6 bushels per acre, down 4.6 bushels from the previous year.
2014 Winter Wheat Production Estimates by Class are Unchanged From January
Hard red winter (HRW) production is estimated at 738 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 9 million bushels from a year ago. Production for 2014 is down from 2013 as a lower yield more than offsets higher harvest area. Estimated yield is 33.7 bushels per acre, down from last year because of drought conditions and an April freeze. Estimated planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-toyear changes for 2014 from 2013 are, respectively, 30.5 million acres (up 0.8 million acres), 21.9 million acres (up 1.5 million acres), and 33.7 bushels per acre (down 2.9 bushels per acre).
Soft red winter (SRW) production is estimated at 455 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 113 million bushels from last year. Production in 2014 is estimated lower than 2013 because of lower harvested area, primarily due to fewer planted acres. The weather was very favorable for timely harvesting of 2012 row crops, leaving ample time for seeding the 2013 SRW crop.
Estimated planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2014 from 2013 are, respectively, 8.5 million acres (down 1.5 million acres), 7.2 million acres (down 1.8 million acres), and 63.6 bushels per acre (down 0.1 bushels per acre).
White winter wheat production for 2014 is estimated to total 184 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 43 million bushels from a year ago. The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white winter wheat were as follows (hard white winter = HWW and soft white winter = SWW):
2014 February HWW SWW
Planted area (million acres) 0.383 3.047
Harvested area (million acres) 0.325 2.897
Yield (bushels/acre) 35.3 59.6
Production (million bushels) 11.5 172.8
2013 HWW SWW
Planted area (million acres) 0.365 3.151
Harvested area (million acres) 0.284 3.051
Yield (bushels/acre) 38.9 70.8
Production (million bushels) 11.1 216.0
Desert durum production in California and Arizona is estimated at 11.7 million bushels for 2014, which is less than the 12.4 million bushels in 2013.
2014 U.S. Spring Wheat Production Is Unchanged From January
The survey-based estimate of spring wheat production, at 648 million bushels, is unchanged from January but down 56 million bushels from 2013. Estimated 2014 harvested area is 14.1 million acres, down 1.4 million acres from 2013. The 2014 spring wheat yield is estimated at 46.0 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from the previous year.
Spring Wheat Production Estimates by Class are Unchanged From January
Hard red spring (HRS) production is estimated at 556 million bushels, unchanged from January but up 65 million bushels from 2013. Estimated planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2014 from 2013 are, respectively, 12.2 million acres (up 1.3 million acres), 12.0 million acres (up 1.3 million acres), and 46.3 bushels per acre (up 0.5 bushels per acre). White spring production is estimated to total 39.5 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 4.0 million bushels from 2013.The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white spring wheat are as follows (hard white spring = HWS and soft white spring = SWS):
2014 February HWS SWS
Planted area (million acres) 0.14 0.638
Harvested area (million acres) 0.134 0.615
Yield (bushels/acre) 66.9 49.7
Production (million bushels) 8.9 30.6
2013 HWS SWS
Planted area (million acres) 0.147 0.517
Harvested area (million acres) 0.141 0.500
Yield (bushels/acre) 74.5 65.9
Production (million bushels) 10.5 32.9
Durum wheat production is estimated to total 53.1 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 4.9 million bushels from a year ago due to smaller harvested area and lower yields. Estimated planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2014 from 2013 are, respectively, 1.40 million acres (unchanged), 1.34 million acres, (unchanged), and 39.7 bushels per acre (down 3.6 bushels per acre).
Projected 2014/15 Supplies Down Slightly This Month
The 2014/15 outlook for U.S. wheat supplies is lowered 20 million bushels from January to 2,776 million bushels because of lower projected imports. Projected imports of HRS and durum are each lowered 10 million bushels based on the pace to date.
Projected 2014/15 Supplies Down From 2013/14
Total supplies are down a projected 245 million bushels from 2013/14. HRS and durum supplies are projected up year to year, and projected supplies of the other classes are down. HRW supplies are down mostly because of lower carryin stocks, which is the combined result of sharply lower production in 2013/14 compared to 2012/13 and strong 2013/14 exports. SRW and white supplies are down mostly due to lower production; yields are down from the previous year.
Projected Total 2014/15 Utilization Is Down This Month
The 2014/15 outlook for projected U.S. wheat use, at 2,084 million bushels, is down 25 million bushels from January. Projected feed and residual use and seed use is unchanged from January.
Projected total food use at 960 million bushels is unchanged but 5 million bushels are moved from durum to HRW.
Projected 2014/15 exports, at 900 million bushels, are down 25 million bushels from January. Projected imports of HRW, SRW, and durum are down 20 million bushels, 10 million bushels, and 5 million bushels, respectively, based on the pace to date. Projected HRS exports are raised 10 million bushels based on the pace to date.
Projected 2014/15 Utilization Down From 2013/14
Total use is projected down by 347 million bushels from 2013/14. Total use of HRS and durum are up, while total use of the other three classes is down year to year. Projected domestic use, at 1,184 million bushels, is down 71 million bushels from 2013/14 as lower expected feed and residual use more than offset higher food use. Projected 2014/15 exports are down 276 million bushels from 2013/14, especially due to lower expected HRW and SRW exports. HRW and SRW exports are expected down 161 million bushels and 138 million bushels, respectively.
Projected 2014/15 Total Ending Stocks Are Raised From January
The projected 2014/15 outlook for total U.S. wheat ending stocks is raised 5 million bushels from January to 692 million bushels. Total 2014/15 ending stocks are expected up 17 percent from 2013/14. Ending stocks of SRW, HRW, and HRS are expected up year to year by 60 percent, 13 percent, and 12 percent, respectively. Durum stocks are up 1 percent year to year. White ending stocks are expected down 35 percent.
The 2014/15 Price Range Is Changed From January
The projected season-average farm price range for 2014/15 is $5.85 to $6.15 per bushel; the January range was $5.90 to $6.30 per bushel. The midpoint is lowered with the recent drop in prices. The season-average farm price for 2013/14 is estimated at $6.87 per bushel.
