AgFax Grain Review: Corn Exports to Increase; Soybean Acreage May Decline


    • reports that Archer Daniels Midland Co. has forecast an acceleration in U.S. corn exports while soybean exports are expected to decline. As Brazil’s soybean harvest picks up, the season decline in U.S. exports is expected to kick in while paving the way for globally competitive U.S. corn.
    • reports that hedge fund selling in soybeans could be winding down as the market is currently largely oversold, signifying a potential bottom in sight. Wheat, on the other hand, is likely to continue to sell off as weak prices attract new sellers in a system of self-fulfilling weakness.

    • Tom Polansek reports for Reuters that Cargill has begun selling Viptera corn following the varieties approval by China. Viptera is the same variety that Cargill sued Syngenta over after China began rejecting U.S. corn shipments containing the variety in late 2013.
    • reports that Brazil is suffering from increased occurrences of soybean rust, which began showing up 15 days earlier this season than last year. As a result Brazilian farmers are buying heavily into Syngenta’s latest release fungicide, offsetting company losses in other sectors.
    • Tshepiso Mokhema reports for Bloomberg that South Africa will increase soybean acreage by 23% to a national record of 620,300 hectares. Interest in soybeans is on the rise as corn prices decline, but the country does not currently possess the cultivars to become a soybean producing power house. Processing facilities have expanded well beyond the country’s ability to supply them, resulting in a net importation of soybeans.
    • also reports that Brazil soybean harvest is off to a faster than expected start thanks to recent dryness, with harvest estimated at 6% complete as of last weekend. The same dryness continues to raise concerns over 2nd crop corn, however, although current expectations are for any declines in corn planting to be minimal.
    • Jack Kaskey reports for Bloomberg that Dow’s Enlist soybean variety has taken a market blow before even going up for sale. DuPont Pioneer and Syngenta have refused to sell Enlist seeds, while rival company Monsanto will not only not be selling Enlist seeds but also marketing its own Xtend variety. While Monsanto is predicted to get as much as 90% of U.S. acres with its Xtend variety, Dow’s “enthusiasm for Enlist remains high” according to the company’s president.
    • reports that European feed groups are urging for more expedient approval of GMO crops for imports, citing a decline in EU feed production and the potential for massive scale trade blocks should current regulations remain in place.
    • reports that the Chinese government has announced support for GMO technology in agriculture and raising public awareness of the benefits of GMOs. “The country will strengthen the technical study, safety management and better public awareness of GM technology,” with the Chinese President announcing that GMO development will be continue as long as the right caution is exercised.


    • reports that while many investors, as well as the USDA, are predicting a rise in U.S. soybean acreage this season, Societe Generale has released a forecast for soybean sowings to fall as much as 600,000 acres, while corn acreage could climb as much as 700,000 acres. The group cites the decline in soybean prices, particularly to the key November 2015 soybean-to-December 2015 corn forward ratio which serves as a benchmark of the profitability of corn vs. soybeans. At current price levels corn offers better returns than soybeans even in 2nd year corn fields which typically offer a 10% decline on full yield potential.
    • The National Corn Growers Association reports on that more corn growers planted corn refuges and other integrated refuge products in 2014, more than tripling 2013 levels.



    • David Shaffer reports for the Star Tribune that Syngenta has developed a new corn variety, Enogen, specifically made for use in ethanol production. The variety contains an enzyme needed for starch fermentation within every kernel, making the production process cheaper and more efficient. Currently 6 ethanol plants in the Midwest are using the variety with a deal in the works for a 7th. There are some concerns about Enogen leaking into the food chain, however. The variety poses no health risks, but the enzyme that breaks down starch for ethanol production could affect the textures of other foods such as tortilla chips.

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