The only revision this month to the U.S. 2014/15 all-rice balance sheet was a 0.4-million cwt increase in production to 221.1 million cwt (rough basis). Although total exports remain forecast at 102.0 million cwt, there was a 2.0-million cwt shift from long-grain to combined medium- and short-grain exports and a 1.0 million cwt shift to rough-rice exports from milled-rice exports. The larger crop forecast raised the ending stocks forecast to 40.9 million cwt, nearly 29 percent above a year earlier.
The combined medium- and short-grain U.S. 2014/15 SAFP range was raised $1.30 on both ends to $19.00-$20.00 per cwt, the second highest on record. The 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. long-grain rice remains projected at $12.20-$13.20 per cwt, well below $15.40 per cwt in 2013/14 and the lowest since 2010/11. The 2014/15 all-rice U.S. SAFP was raised 40 cents on both ends to $14.20-$15.20 per cwt due to the higher medium- and short-grain SAFP.
Domestic Outlook
U.S. 2014/15 Long-grain Production Projected Up 22 Percent from 2013/14
The 2014/15 U.S. rice crop is projected at 221.1 million cwt (hundredweight, rough basis), an increase of 0.38 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 16 percent larger than a year earlier. This month’s upward revision was the result of a slightly higher yield forecast for Mississippi. The U.S. and State area estimates are unchanged from last month. The long-grain production forecast was raised 0.24 million cwt to 160.3 million cwt, an increase of 22 percent from a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain production forecast was raised 0.14 million cwt to 60.8 million cwt, up 5 percent from a year earlier.
U.S. rice plantings remain estimated at 2.93 million acres, 18 percent higher than a year earlier. Plantings increased from a year earlier in all reported States except California, where rice area dropped due to drought, low reservoir levels, and water restrictions.
The average yield is projected at 7,597 pounds per acre, up 13 pounds from last month’s forecast but still 97 pounds below the year-earlier record. The 2014/15 U.S. rice yield is the second highest U.S. yield on record. Mississippi’s 2014/15 yield was raised 200 pounds to 7,200 pounds per acre, boosting the Mississippi production forecast 0.38 million cwt to 13.7 million cwt. Yields are projected lower in 2014/15 than a year earlier in all reported States except California and Texas.
Production is projected to be higher in 2014/15 in all reported States except California, with Arkansas accounting for the bulk of the 31.2-million cwt projected increase in U.S. rice production for the period. Except for a small amount of the Gulf Coast ratoon crop, all of the 2014 U.S. crop was harvested by early November.
U.S. Rice Supplies in 2014/15 Projected Up 10 Percent from 2013/14
Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 are projected at 273.9 million cwt, up 0.4 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 10 percent above a year earlier. These are the second highest total supplies of U.S. rice on record. This month’s slight upward revision in total supplies is due to the larger crop forecast. Carryin and imports are unchanged from last month’s forecasts. In 2014/15, a much larger crop is expected to more than offset a smaller carryin and weaker imports.
By class, long-grain supplies are projected at 195.0 million cwt, up 0.24 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 13 percent larger than a year earlier. In 2014/15, a larger long-grain crop more than offset a smaller long-grain carryin and weaker long-grain imports. Medium- and short-grain total 2014/15 supplies are projected at 76.1 million cwt, an increase of 0.14 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 4 percent larger than a year earlier. Carryin and production of medium- and short-grain rice are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier.
The all-rice beginning stocks estimate for 2014/15 remains at 31.8 million cwt, 13 percent below a year earlier. The 2014/15 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 16.2 million cwt, 26 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain carryin remains estimated 13.3 million cwt, 9 percent larger than a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, included in the all-rice estimate, are not specified by class.
Total U.S. rice imports in 2014/15 remain projected at 21.0 million cwt, 9 percent below a year earlier. In 2013/14, about 2 million cwt of brokens were imported due to tight supplies of U.S. brokens. Because of the expected increase in millings resulting from the larger crop, the supply of U.S. brokens is likely to be larger and lower priced in 2014/15. Long-grain imports remain projected at 18.5 million cwt, down 5 percent from the year-earlier record.
Thailand is expected to again supply more than 70 percent of U.S. long-grain imports, shipping mostly its premium jasmine rice, an aromatic. Basmati rice from India and Pakistan accounts for much of the remaining U.S. long-grain rice imports.
Combined medium- and short-grain rice imports remain projected at 2.5 million cwt, 29 percent below a year earlier. In 2013/14, the U.S. imported nearly 1.0 million cwt of broken rice kernels from Australia, a major exporter of medium- and short-grain rice. The United States does not typically import brokens from Australia, preferring lower priced sources such as Vietnam. Specialty rice from Thailand accounts for the bulk of U.S. imports of medium- and short-grain rice. Italy supplies a small amount of Arborio rice to the United States each year.
U.S. 2014/15 Long-Grain Exports Forecast Lowered 2.0 Million Cwt to 68.0 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 233.0 million cwt, 7 percent larger than a year earlier. Both total domestic use (including a residual component) and exports are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier. Total longgrain use in 2014/15 is projected at 167.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 6 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined mediumand short-grain rice total use is projected at 66.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month and 9 percent higher than a year earlier.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 131.0 million cwt, 5 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 99.0 million cwt, 4 percent above a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use remains forecast at 32.0 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier.
Total exports in 2014/15 remain projected at 102.0 million cwt, 10 percent larger than a year earlier. The increase in exports forecast for 2014/15 is largely based on expectations that more competitive U.S. prices will increase sales to major markets in the Western Hemisphere, especially Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Haiti. Through October 30, combined commercial exports and outstanding sales totaled 1.22 million tons (product-weight), 15 percent larger than a year earlier.
Outstanding commercial sales were 33 percent higher than a year earlier, while commercial exports were 12 percent behind a year earlier. Through October 30, U.S. commercial sales and shipments were substantially ahead of a year earlier to
Haiti, Mexico, Turkey, and Venezuela, four typically large markets for U.S. rice. U.S. 2014/15 long-grain exports are projected at 68.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million from last month’s forecast but still 10 percent above a year earlier.
This month’s downward revision was based on U.S. Census data through September, commercial sales and shipments through October 30, and expectations regarding sales the remainder of the market year. Through October 30, U.S. sales and shipments were weaker than expected to the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The Western Hemisphere is the largest export market for U.S. long-grain rice, accounting for two-thirds of U.S. long-grain shipments, with rough rice accounting for the bulk of U.S. shipments to the Western Hemisphere. The major Asian rice exporters do not ship rough rice out of the region and ship milled rice mostly within Asia and to Africa.
The Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are the next largest markets for U.S. long-grain rice, taking almost exclusively milled-rice from the United States. The U.S. typically faces its strongest competition with Asian exporters in these markets.
Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2014/15 are projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 10 percent larger than a year earlier. The upward revision was based on expected weaker exports from Egypt and Australia. Northeast Asia and the Middle East (including North Africa) account for the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain exports, with Northeast Asia–China, South Korea, and Taiwan–typically taking about two thirds of total U.S. medium- and short-grain exports.
These annual Northeast Asia sales typically begin in late September and are all the result of agreements under the World Trade Organization. Australia is the major supplier of rice to Oceania. U.S. shipments to Oceania are typically less than 1 million cwt.
By type, U.S. rough-rice exports are projected at 35.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 22 percent from a year earlier. Through October 30, U.S. commercial sales and shipments of rough rice were ahead of a year earlier to Mexico, Turkey, and Venezuela. Long-grain accounts for the bulk of U.S. rough-rice exports, with Latin America the top regional market and Mexico and Central America the largest buyers.
Southern long-grain accounts for nearly all of the U.S. rough-rice shipments to Latin America. Turkey and Libya account for almost all U.S. medium- and short-grain rough-rice exports, typically taking California rice.
Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 67.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 5 percent larger than a year earlier. Through October 30, U.S. milled-rice sales and exports to Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East have been behind expectations.
Northeast Asia, the Middle East, Haiti, Canada, and Sub-Saharan Africa are the largest export markets for U.S. milled-rice exports. The expected increase in 2014/15 in U.S. milled-rice exports is based on lower U.S. prices, a much smaller U.S. price difference over Asian competitors, and larger U.S. supplies.
U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 40.9 million cwt, up 0.4 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 28.5 percent larger than a year earlier.
The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 17.6 percent, up from 14.6 percent in 2013/14. By class, the 2014/15 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 28.0 million cwt, up 2.2 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 73 percent larger than a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.7 percent, up from 10.3 percent in 2013/14.
The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 10.6 million cwt, down 1.9 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 20 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.1 percent, down from 22.0 percent in 2013/14.
U.S. 2014/15 Medium- and Short-grain Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Raised
The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) range is projected at $19.00-$20.00 per cwt, up $1.30 on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast. The 2014/15 SAFP is up from $18.50 per cwt in 2013/14 and is the second highest on record. The upward revision in the 2014/15 medium- and short-grain SAFP is based on reported NASS prices by region through September and expectations regarding prices the remainder of the market year.
In California, where 70 percent or more of the U.S. medium- and short-grain crop is typically grown, production is down nearly 24 percent from a year earlier due to reduced plantings, a major factor behind the higher SAFP in 2014/15. Tighter global supplies of medium- and short-grain rice are also pushing prices higher.
However, because a larger than normal share of the medium- and short-grain crop will come from the South in 2014/15, the price increase will be limited. The 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. long-grain rice remains projected at $12.20-$13.20 per cwt, well below the $15.40 per cwt estimated for 2013/14 and the lowest since 2010/11. The expected price decline in 2014/15 is primarily based on larger U.S. supplies. The 2014/15 all-rice U.S. SAFP was raised 40 cents on both ends to $14.20-$15.20 per cwt due to the higher medium- and short-grain SAFP. This is well below the $16.10 reported for 2013/14.
In late October, NASS reported a mid-October U.S. long-grain rough-rice cash price of $14.00 per cwt, up 30 cents from the revised September estimate. The September price was lowered 90 cents to $13.70 from a preliminary $14.60. Virtually all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South.
For U.S. combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-October NASS price was reported at $18.10 per cwt, down $2.30 from the revised September price. The September price was raised 20 cents from its preliminary estimate to $20.40 per cwt. By region, the California mid-October medium- and short-grain price was estimated at $21.00 per cwt, down $1.50 from $22.50 a month earlier. The mid-October 2014 southern medium- and short-grain price is estimated at $15.10 per cwt, down 60 cents from September. NASS began reporting U.S. medium- and short-grain monthly prices by region in October 2014, starting with the August 2014 prices.
