Private analytical firm Informa Economics tweaked its estimates for U.S. corn and soybean production a little higher than last month in a report released Tuesday morning.
Informa pegged corn production at 14.493 billion bushels, 18 million bushels more than USDA forecast in October.
The national average yield estimate, at 174.4 bushels per acre, is just 0.2 bpa higher than USDA’s latest estimate. If realized, the yield estimate would surpass the 2009 yield record by more than 10 bpa. Informa now pegs Illinois corn yield at 202 bpa, up 2 bpa from October.
Soybean production is expected to climb by 64 mb to 3.991 bb from last month’s USDA estimate. Informa pegged the national average yield at 47.9 bpa, up from 47.1 bpa last month.
“Informa’s estimates were close enough to October’s USDA numbers that there was little market reaction on Tuesday,” DTN Analyst Todd Hultman said. “The estimates continue to confirm record corn and soybean harvests and a bearish fundamental outlook for corn and soybean prices.”
Informa also expects USDA to increase its cotton and grain sorghum production estimates when it releases its next Crop Production and supply and demand reports on Monday, Nov. 10, at 11 a.m. CST.
While Informa didn’t release any specific estimates for U.S. wheat, it noted that Nebraska’s received 161% of its average rainfall while Kansas has received 112%. While Texas and Oklahoma still trail their averages, Informa said winter wheat’s progression is at or above normal with 90% planted and 77% emerged.
Informa also released its global crop report, pegging Brazil and Argentina soybean production at 93 million metric tons and 56 mmt, respectively. Informa’s projection for Brazil is 1 mmt lower than USDA’s October estimate while Argentina’s forecast is 1 mmt higher.
Hultman doesn’t think those numbers are a big market-movers just yet, but the market’s attention will continue shifting to the South American crop when harvest winds down.
“The only thing I see among world estimates is that Informa is estimating Australia’s 2014 wheat crop at 22.0 mmt versus USDA’s 25.0 mmt, but they are also expecting a little more in Europe and Argentina, so there is little net effect,” Hultman said.
“There may be room for USDA to trim its 2014 wheat crop estimate for Australia, based on dry weather, but that will not be enough to shake wheat prices from their current bearish outlook.”