AgFax Grain Review: Price Route Near End; Brazil to Reach Record Soy Exports


    • Ed Clark reports on that grain elevators in North Dakota are offering an exceptionally wide range in basis prices due to storage and transportation concerns from continuing rail delays. Some bins are offering bids as low $1.73 with others in the $2.20 to $2.40 range. “Grain storage (in the state) is going to be tight… we will have room for everything, but will some corn be stored on the ground? Yes,” according to a North Dakota State University ag economist. Soybean prices have also dropped to just over $8, leaving receivable cash prices for most of the state below variable costs
    • reports that Deutsche Bank foresees the route in ag prices coming to a close as markets are showing strong signs of being oversold. However, with the chances of a strong El Nino event occurring this winter dwindling, it would likely be next spring before a price recovery could occur. Other commodity commentators are more negative on price outlooks, with some predicting corn to fall to $2.75 a bushel and soybeans to fall to $8 with the possibility of dropping as low as $7 if crop conditions remain favorable next season.
    • also reports that while Brazil’s corn and soybean exports fell short of expectations for the 2013-14 marketing year, exports in 2014-15 are expected to reach record highs. USDA currently projects 22 million tonnes in corn exports from Brazil on “large anticipated domestic supply” and large stocks left over from last season, while soybean exports are being pegged at a record 49 million tonnes, well above projected U.S. soybean exports of 46.3 million tonnes.
    • Whitney McFerron reports for Bloomberg that increased soybean production in the U.S. and South America will result in record global soybean crushing in the 2014-15 season. Crushing of the oilseed is expected to climb 6.5% to 253.32 million metric tons. U.S. soybean crushing may rise to a record 49.3 million tons.
    • Reuters reports that China has cited public opinion over concerns of the safety of GMO crops as the reason for suspension of the import approval process for a variety of GMO soybeans. While the variety in question was not named, it is the first time China has given public opinion as the reason for denying regulatory approval. The country has typically denied approval on the basis of insufficient scientific data, but is now also struggling with public acceptance of GMO crops amid rising concerns of possible health risks.
    • Reuters reports that Monsanto has launched a global center in Mexico for developing new conventional hybrid corn varieties, primarily to be marketed in the U.S. The center, located near the southern fringe of the city of Guadalajara, aims to work on developing strains resistant to diseases and stressors from climate change.


    • reports that rains across the Corn Belt are expected to delay harvest and slow crop development as the threat of frost returns to the Upper Midwest states. Rains would interrupt the string of outstanding yield reports and curtail farmers’ ability to catch up on harvest, which was 11% points behind in corn as of Sunday Sept. 28 and 7% points behind in soybeans. Fortunately most of the crops should be too far along for a frost to do much damage.
    • A Press Release on The Delphos Herald reports that with the decline in soybean prices more farmers are looking to grow Identity Preserved soybeans, such as high-oleic beans, to add a premium to their sales price. A new online calculator developed by QUALISOY and based on a Purdue University study “helps farmers navigate the typical steps required to produce and segregate IP soybeans and gives them an estimate of added profit potential.” The calculator also offers information on additional costs associated with a given IP variety to develop a crop to help farmers make educated decisions on seed selection and planting.


    • Tim Harlow reports for the Star Tribune that the Minnesota Department of Transportation has asked corn farmers to leave several rows of corn stalks unharvested where they border major roadways as a snow trap to keep snow off roads. The DoT offers a stipend for farmers who agree to participate in the program, but so far few have joined in as farmers dislike harvesting the standing stalks by hand and having to bring out their combines in the spring. This year, as an additional incentive for farmers, University of Minnesota Extension is helping to pair up participating growers with 4-H and Future Farmers of America groups to get children to contribute to harvesting the standing rows by hand as a community service project and to help educate them about work in the field.

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