Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are lowered this month as an increase in beginning stocks is more than offset by a reduction in forecast winter wheat production. Beginning stocks are raised with a 10-million-bushel reduction in 2013/14 food use and offsetting 5-million-bushel reductions in 2013/14 imports and exports.
Projected production for 2014/15 is down 21 million bushels as reduced prospects for hard red winter (HRW) wheat in the Southern and Central Plains and white winter wheat in the Pacific Northwest more than outweigh higher forecast soft red winter wheat production across the South and Midwest. Projected food use is lowered 10 million bushels for 2014/15 and for 2013/14. This month’s reduced outlook for food use assumes a higher flour extraction rate for both marketing years.
Exports for 2014/15 are projected 25 million bushels lower with tighter supplies of HRW wheat and stronger competition from major exporters. Projected ending stocks are raised 34 million bushels. The projected range for the 2014/15 season-average farm price is lowered 30 cents on both ends to $6.35-$7.65 per bushel based on the larger expected carryout, higher global production, and recent sharp declines in futures prices.
Domestic Outlook
Ending Stocks for 2014/15 Projected To Increase From May
Ending stocks of all wheat for 2014/15 are projected to be up 34 million bushels from May as total use decreases more than total supplies. Total projected uses are down 45 million bushels from May because of both lower exports and domestic use. Total wheat supplies for 2014/15 are projected down 11 million bushels from May as lower production more than offsets higher carryin stocks.
Total production is projected at 1,942 million bushels, down 21 million bushels from May and down 188 million bushels from 2013/14.
2014 U.S. Winter Wheat Production
The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production, at 1,381 million bushels, is down 22 million bushels from May and down 153 million bushels from 2013. Forecast planted and harvested areas are unchanged from May. Expected 2014 harvested area is 32.6 million acres, up 0.2 million acres from last year as a higher harvest-to-planted ratio offset a lower planted area. The 2014 winter wheat yield is forecast at 42.4 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from May and down 5.0 bushels from the previous year.
2014 Winter Wheat Production Estimates by Class
Hard red winter (HRW) production is forecast at 720 million bushels, down 26 million bushels from May and down 24 million bushels from a year ago. Forecast yield is 32.4 bushels per acre, down from 33.6 bushels in May. 2014 production is down from 2013 as a lower yield more than offsets a higher harvest area. Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2014 from 2013 are 30.2 million acres, up 0.7 million acres; 22.2 million acres, up 2.0 million acres; and 32.4 bushels per acre, down 4.4 bushels per acre, respectively.
Soft red winter (SRW) production is forecast at 454 million bushels, up 7 million bushels from May, but down 111 million bushels from last year. Forecast yield is 63.3 bushels per acre, up from 62.3 bushels in May. 2014 production is forecast lower from 2013 because of both lower harvested area and a lower yield. Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2014 from 2013 are 8.4 million acres, down 1.6 million acres; 7.2 million acres, down 1.7 million acres; and 63.3 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushel per acre, respectively.
White winter wheat production for 2014 is forecast to total 206 million bushels, down 3 million from May and down 19 million bushels from a year ago. The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white winter wheat were as follows (hard white winter = HWW and soft white winter = SWW):
2014 June HWW SWW
Planted area (million acres) 0.378 2.967
Harvested area (million acres) 0.316 2.85
Yield (bushels/acre) 34.4 68.6
Production (million bushels) 10.9 195.5
2014 May HWW SWW
Planted area (million acres) 0.378 2.967
Harvested area (million acres) 0.316 2.85
Yield (bushels/acre) 34.6 69.6
Production (million bushels) 10.9 198.3
2013 HWW SWW
Planted area (million acres) 0.365 3.134
Harvested area (million acres) 0.283 3.028
Yield (bushels/acre) 39.4 70.7
Production (million bushels) 11.2 214.2
Desert durum production in California and Arizona is forecast at 13.1 million bushels for 2014. This production is less than the 14.8 million bushels in 2013.
Projected 2014/15 Utilization
Total U.S. wheat use for 2014/15 is projected at 2,121 million bushels, down 45 million bushels from May and down 303 million bushels from 2013/14. Food use is projected at 960 million bushels, down 10 million from May and up 10 million from 2013/14. The change from May is due to a higher assumed flour extraction rate.
Feed and residual use is projected at 160 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from May with the smaller forecast winter wheat production. Feed and residual use is also down from the 220 million bushels projected for 2013/14 as smaller supplies and lower prices for feed grains in 2014/15 limit wheat feeding this summer.
Exports are projected at 925 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from May because of tighter supplies of HRW and stronger competition from other major export competitors. Exports are also down 255 million bushels from 2013/14. Thus, ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 574 million bushels, up 34 million bushels from May, but down 19 million bushels from 2013/14.
2014/15 Price Range Projection
The 2014/15 season-average farm price range is projected at $6.35 to $7.65 per bushel, down from $6.65 to $7.95 per bushel in May. The midpoint of this range is above the $6.87 per bushel projected for 2013/14.
2013/14 Marketing Year Discussion: Projected 2013/14 Supplies Lower
Projected total 2013/14 supplies, at 3,018 million bushels, are down 5 million bushels this month. Total projected imports are down 5 million bushels based on pace. Imports by class are down 2 million bushels for both HRS and SRW, and down 1 million bushels for white.
Projected 2013/14 Supplies Down From 2012/13
Total U.S. wheat supply for 2013/14 is down 113 million bushels from 2012/13 as reduced production and lower beginning stocks more than offset higher imports. Supplies of HRW and durum are down year to year, while supplies are up for the other classes. HRW supplies decreased the most, as smaller production more than offsets higher beginning stocks. HRW production is down from 2012 due partially to the smaller planted area for the 2013 crop, and both a higher abandonment rate and a lower yield because of severe drought and spring freeze damage.
SRW supplies were up the most year to year as higher production and imports more than offset lower beginning stocks. SRW production is higher than in 2012 because of larger harvested area and higher yield.
Projected Total 2013/14 Utilization Is Down This Month
Projected 2013/14 total U.S. wheat use, at 2,424 million bushels, is down 15 million bushels this month. Projected food use is down 10 million bushels based on a higher extraction rate for 2013/14 than previously assumed. All-wheat flour production is based on quarterly estimates provided by the North American Millers’ Association. Seed use and feed/residual use are unchanged. Total projected exports are lowered 5 million bushels this month based on pace by class of wheat. Projected exports of HRW and SRW are each lowered 5 million bushels. HRS exports are raised 5 million bushels.
Projected 2013/14 Use Is Up From 2012/13
Projected total use for 2013/14 is up 10 million bushels from 2012/13 as higher exports more than offset lower domestic use. Domestic use is expected to be down 162 million bushels from 2012/13 while exports are projected up 173 million bushels. Domestic use is down because feed and residual use is expected to fall 168 million bushels from 2012/13. Total food use is expected 5 million bushels higher than in 2012/13, with population growth and an expected strong flour extraction rate.
Projected 2013/14 Total Ending Stocks Up From May, But Down From 2012/13
The projected 2013/14 U.S. total wheat ending stocks, at 593 million bushels, are up from May as the 5-million-bushel decrease in imports is more than offset by the 15-million-bushel decrease in total use. These projected ending stocks are down 125 million bushels from 2012/13.
Total ending stocks for 2013/14 are expected to decrease by 17 percent from 2012/13. Stocks of HRW and white are expected down 42 percent and 24 percent, respectively. Stocks of HRS, SRW, and durum are expected up 14 percent, 7 percent, and 5 percent, respectively.
2013/14 Price Projection Raised Slightly
The projected May 2013/14 season-average farm price of $6.85 per bushel was raised to $6.87 this month. The 2013/14 price is down from the record $7.77 per bushel reported for 2012/13.
Winter Wheat Conditions Are Mixed
The June 9 Crop Progress report from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service indicates that 30 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent and 44 percent was rated poor to very poor. A year ago at this time, 31 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, and 42 percent was rated poor to very poor. Drought conditions continue to be a problem in the Central and Southern Plains.
Conditions are poor in Texas, but better than a year ago. This year, 63 percent of the Texas crop is rated poor to very poor, compared with 74 percent for the 2013 crop. Oklahoma situation is worse. This year, 76 percent of the Oklahoma crop is rated poor to very poor, compared with 53 percent for the 2013 crop. Kansas is also worse. This year, 63 percent of the Kansas crop is rated poor to very poor, compared with 47 percent for the 2013 crop.
The crop conditions for Nebraska, Colorado, and South Dakota are better year to year. Respectively, the shares of each State’s 2014 and 2013 crops that rated poor to very poor are: Nebraska, 24 percent to 50 percent; Colorado, 38 percent to 57 percent; and South Dakota, 5 percent to 56 percent.
The SRW-producing States are generally in good condition this year compared to the winter wheat crop in the Plains, but slightly worse than a year ago. The SRW-producing States’ 2014 crop averages 63 percent rated good to excellent and 8 percent poor to very poor. The SRW-producing States’ crop at this time last year averaged 65 percent rated good to excellent, and 6 percent poor to very poor.
Conditions for the 2014 crop are also good in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), but conditions are down slightly from last year. Winter wheat for 2014 in the PNW States average 54 percent rated good to excellent and 15 percent poor to very poor. Last year, these States averaged 57 percent good to excellent and 14 percent poor to very poor.
