Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are lowered this month as an increase in beginning stocks is more than offset by a reduction in forecast winter wheat production. Beginning stocks are raised with a 10-million-bushel reduction in 2013/14 food use and offsetting 5-million-bushel reductions in 2013/14 imports and exports. Projected production for 2014/15 is down 21 million bushels as reduced prospects for Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in the Southern and Central Plains and White Winter wheat in the Pacific Northwest more than outweigh higher forecast Soft Red Winter wheat production across the South and Midwest.
Projected food use is lowered 10 million bushels for 2014/15 and for 2013/14. This month’s reduced outlook for food use assumes a higher flour extraction rate for both marketing years. Exports for 2014/15 are projected 25 million bushels lower with tighter supplies of HRW wheat and stronger competition from major exporters. Projected ending stocks are raised 34 million bushels.
The projected range for the 2014/15 season-average farm price is lowered 30 cents on both ends to $6.35 to $7.65 per bushel based on the larger expected carryout, higher global production, and recent sharp declines in futures prices.
Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised 4.1 million tons as a 5.2-million-ton increase in foreign production is only partly offset by a 0.8-million-ton reduction in foreign beginning stocks and this month’s lower U.S. production outlook. Beginning stocks are lowered for Australia, Russia, and Turkey with increases in 2013/14 exports this month.
World production for 2014/15 is projected at 701.6 million tons, up 4.6 million from last month with increases for India, the European Union, China, and Russia more than offsetting the decline in U.S. output. India production is raised 1.9 million tons based on the latest official government estimate.
European Union production is raised 1.4 million tons as spring and early summer rainfall support higher yield outlooks for France, Germany, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. Production for China and Russia is raised 1.0 million tons each as favorable growing conditions also support higher expected yields.
Global wheat trade and consumption for 2014/15 are raised with larger foreign supplies. Trade and consumption are also raised for 2013/14. Increases in world imports and exports for 2014/15 are relatively small, but world consumption is raised 2.9 million tons with increased feeding expected in China and the European Union and increased food use projected for India, all supported by larger crops.
Exports for 2014/15 are raised 0.5 million tons each for the European Union and Russia, more than offsetting this month’s reduction in U.S. export prospects. World ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 1.2 million tons higher with much of the increase in the United States. At 188.6 million tons, global stocks are up 2.6 million year-to-year.