After several weeks without any change, World Market Price factors were lowered by USDA this week: down 13 cents on long grain and 12 cents on medium/short grain. The on-farm value of long grain rough drops to $11.50 per cwt.
Rice futures tumbled the first three days of this week, but Thursday saw a bit of a recovery. Good support was found at the 15.21 level in the nearby July (the current continuation chart month), and Thursday’s settlement at 15.32, up 5 on the day, may predict higher numbers over the next week or so.
This is still a market in which being short is a potentially dangerous position. A run back up into the 15.65 to 15.85 range in the nearby contract would not be a surprise, particularly if export sales hold their current pace. It is interesting to note, too, that the new crop Sep and Nov contracts settled today at 14.50 (up 3.5) and 14.59 (up 2.5) respectively. June should provide some interesting and telling action. We recommend trading rice futures or any other futures contracts with care.
In yet another example of the see-saw-sales US rice has seen over the last couple of months, this week’s export sales registrations posted a net of 64,500 tons. Long grain rough sales totaled 19,300 tons, with Mexico taking 11,800 tons and El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Honduras sharing the balance. Long grain milled sales were 21,000 tons, with Haiti being the biggest buyer at 14,300 tons, followed by Mexico with 2,600 tons, Canada with 1,800 tons, and Saudi Arabia with 1,600 tons (parboiled).
Medium/short grain showed 28,100 tons total – all milled. Japan was the big buyer at 25,300 tons, followed by Canada at 1,100 tons and Jordan at 600 tons. We expect export sales to be an up-and-down situation into the summer, but this week shows there is still business out there that has to be covered.
Export shipments for the week totaled a big 90,600 tons. The big hitter was long grain rough at a total of 51,000 tons, with Mexico taking 35,100 tons, followed by Honduras at 9,100 tons, El Salvador with 6,300 tons, and Guatemala with 500 tons. Long grain milled and brown liftings totaled 19,300 tons, with Haiti loading out 14,300 tons, along with Canada taking 2,200 tons of milled and 200 tons of brown, Mexico taking 1,100 tons, and Saudi Arabia 700 tons (parboiled).
Medium/short grain shipments lead off with 800 tons of paddy going to Mexico and 2,400 tons of brown to Taiwan (2,000 tons) and Japan (400 tons). Medium/short milled finished out the report with a total of 17,000 tons moving to Japan (13,000 tons), Canada (1,300 tons), and Jordan (1,200 tons). The exports are continuing at a good pace.
Asian prices this week showed Thai 100% Grade B at $385 per ton fob vessel, with parboiled now at $408 per ton. Vietnam’s 5% long grain finished the week at $410 per ton. Pakistan’s 5% milled was called $425 per ton with parboiled holding at $440 per ton. India’s prices were $425 for 5% long grain and $400 for parboiled.