Texas planting is around 45% complete – behind last year’s progress which was 78% at this time. Total commercial acres of long grain will probably be less than last year’s with the west side still deprived of water and now the south side as well having major water problems.
- Some acres this year will go to medium grain, although not a lot, and some commercial acres will be cancelled out by seed producing ground. We do not know of any new crop pricing as of yet.
- A new review of the Texas stocks situation leads us to believe that only about 1 million cwts of old crop long grain are still in first hands. There was one public sale this week, with slightly more than 85,000 cwts being shown for a second time for the crop year. Bids were $9.25 per cwt premium over loan for conventional varieties and $9.00 over for hybrids. There were no confirmations.
South Louisiana’s planting is in full swing, with good, warm, sunny weather. The crop is late by about ten days to two weeks, and old crop supplies will likely be completely exhausted by the time the first new crop field is even drained.
- Depending on what parishes are being talked about, planting seems to be somewhere above 50% and below 75% complete. New crop medium grain can still be booked at $25.00 per bbl fob farm, and we understand that new crop long grain for very early delivery can be done at something around $23.50 per bbl fob farm. Old crop long grain is just about completely moved out of first hands, and any remaining can still be sold at $25.00 per bbl fob farm. Some are holding for a higher price.
The Delta/Arkansas/Missouri region is fighting the rain. The entire month of April will be a suitable planning window for rice, but memories of last year’s lack of sufficient dry periods are still in some folks’ minds.
- Of last year’s prevented planting acres, 50,000 or more are expected to return to rice this year. New crop pricing is not being discussed as far as we can tell, but earlier numbers were not attractive to farmers. Old crop stocks are reaching a well sold level, with delivered mill still trading between $16.10 and $16.25 per cwt we are told. The bid for rough delivered to a barge loading facility is now $15.85 per cwt.
Arkansas is trying to dry out and is reporting quite a bit of corn already planted, with some rice in the ground only where it is high and dry.
- Long grain acres coming back from last year’s prevented planting should be at least 200,000, and medium grain planting is expected to be somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 acres. It looks like new crop long grain is being bid around $6.00 per bu fob farm, while medium grain is seeing numbers at the $6.50 per bu level picked up at the farm bins.
- Remaining old crop long grain rough is trading between $6.95 bu and $7.25 bu fob farm, some now with July delivery.
Missouri is reporting wet conditions, too, with no price indications for new crop. Old crop is bid at $7.00 bu fob farm.
