The party seems to be over for the bull move in old crop. The spread between the nearby and the new crop December continued to narrow today. However, the improved weather forecast that hammered wheat doesn’t really extend much into west Texas. Here’s what our weather consultant had to say today in that regard:
The long term West Texas drought will continue over the next two months. But, as noted in hard red winter wheat country, there will be some timely rainfall that will improve soil conditions enough for a little better planting environment. Cotton, corn, sorghum and other crops will be planted aggressively after each bout of rain.
Deep subsoil moisture is expected to be rather limited over the next couple of months and that ongoing dryness will likely bleed back to the surface during the warmer days of late spring and summer. The result of this forecast will be some improved planting weather in the southern Plains, but drought will remain and the potential for more harsh weather is relatively high for the early part of summer.
Catch up sales are strongly encouraged due to the chart action, but no further sales due to the still tenuous weather outlook for Texas described above.