Markets/Trade
- University of Illinois ag economist Darrel Good reports that March is one of four months with an extra batch of USDA reports that are only released Quarterly. So far the reports this month the reports have been supportive of corn and soybean prices, but Good notes that the most important reports are still yet to come. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 28 will reveal the effects of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus on the winter pig crop and provide a projection on pig production and consequent feed usage, while the March 31 Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports could both have major market impacts.
- Andrea Johnson reports for the Minnesota Farm Guide that soybean futures and cash markets are on different paths. While the futures market has been on the rise following global events, cash markets have been suffering a downturn due to the logistic of transporting and handling the 2013 crop. Elevators are having a hard time getting rail cars for transport, stymieing their ability to offer bids for soybeans and widening basis levels.
- NixaXPress.com offers an article from the University of Missouri Extension which reports that a UM ag economist is predicting volatile corn and soybean prices for the next 5 years with average prices dropping to $4 a bushel for corn and $10 a bushel for soybeans. A changing global economy, political unrest in Ukraine and other regions, and even the changes to U.S. ag policy with the new Farm Bill are creating lots and lots of uncertainties, but one thing that is certain, according to this economist, is that farm incomes will go down. He predicts average farm incomes to drop 24% over the next year.
- AgricultureWire.com reports that Brazil has seen a record of crop insurance claims from December, with 2000 new claims generating payments to 5000 farmers. The main reason given is the severe drought in key planting regions which has hurt the country’s soybean crop, with the latest production estimate cut to 85.4 million tons.
- Reuters reports that China has rejected another shipment of U.S. corn totaling 21,800 tons, bringing total rejections up to 908,800 tons over the last 5 months. China’s Biosafety Committee will meet this week to discuss approving the Syngenta GMO variety responsible for the rejections, but if a decision is not made the next opportunity won’t be until June.
- BlackSeaGrain.net reports that UkrAgroConsult is optimistic about Ukraine’s soybean production this season despite the difficult current political situation. Expectations are for an increase in planted area and higher yields, with a predicted harvest over 3 million metric tons.
- AgriMoney.com reports that Russia’s annexation of Crimea could cause a bottleneck for Ukrainian grain exports, particularly if Russia were to decide to implement strong-arm tactics over the Kerch Straight, a narrow channel between Russia and Crimea connecting the Azov Sea to the Black Sea. Domestic grain prices in Ukraine and Russia are expected to climb over the coming weeks regardless of how the political situation works out.
- Ed Winkle reports on the HyMark High Spots blog that Chinese funding of GMO research has dropped 80% over the last four years due to public unease over GMO products, despite government desires to take a global lead in GMO research and a need for more efficient production in the rapidly urbanizing country.
Production
- An Associated Press article on The Times-Picayune reports that cold soils and wet, overcast weather have considerably delayed corn planting in Louisiana, where corn has become the second most important crop after soybeans. Only about 5-10% of the state’s corn acres have been planted, compared to 70-80% by this time last year. While the LSU AgCenter notes that farmers have til mid-April to plant before yields start to decline, many are already planning on cutting acres. The rains that have delayed planting are also increasing pest control problems for insects such a cutworms by providing them with sustainable hosts until the new crop is available for them to feed on.
