The soybean market is grappling with a morning sale announcement of 568,000 MT of US old crop soybean sold to “unknown”. This would obviously make a very tight old crop bean situation much tighter, but coming out of the morning break the trade must not believe what is on the surface. We’re trading 6-8 lower out of the gates. Perhaps this was an optional origin trade that was pegged the US this morning?
Regardless, the US bean program is overbooked. So maybe someone had an agenda on this announcement? On the charts, SK, appears to be headed to the $14.00 area and beyond that we have price counts at $14.22. SX are into their fall range resistance, price counts point to $11.83 there next. Logistics in South America continue to garner attention after the recent rainfall. Reports of washed out roads and equipment getting stuck are starting to surface.
There were reports of up to 10 inches of rain in some areas of Mato Grasso. That area is being pegged at 50% harvested, while Brazil as a whole is pegged at 30-32% complete. The U.S. continues to export large quantities of soybeans with yesterday’s export inspections reporting another 46.7 million bushels shipped. We only need to ship 6.9 million bushels/week to meet expectations.
In yesterday’s price action, money flow continued to chase the shorts across the bean market to start the week. Most of the move higher took place early in the overnight session before moving sideways from 11-14 higher through the second half. The COT report continues to confirm managed funds piling into the market. After the close, March soybeans were 15-3/4 cents higher at $13.86-1/2, while new crop was up 6-1/2.
March beans are trading at the highest level since September of 2012. Funds were active buyers of US soybeans again yesterday picking up 8,000 contracts. Daily volume in soybeans was up around 4% yesterday, with 280,786 contracts changing hands. Open interest gained 5,762 on moderately active fund buying. The soybean revenue protection price is currently at $11.29 prior to today’s action.
LaSalle Street News Top News
— USDA reports private sale of 568,000 mt of US Soybeans to China for the 13/14 MY
— Cash grain traders on Tuesday noted Feed Leaders Committee in South Korea bought 60,000 mt of South American soyoil in a tender, the price was a reported $552.90/mt cif
— Egypt’s finance ministry on Tuesday approved $75.3 million for the import of up to 240,000 mt of Wheat and also $52.4 million for 58,000 mt of edible vegoil.
— Brazil grain analyst AgRural estimated the Brazil Soybean harvest at 30% complete vs. 35% a year ago on this date. They noted some areas of Mato Grosso received up to 9 inches of rain last week hampering the harvest.
— Intertek estimated Malaysian palm oil product exports over the Feb 1-25 period at 1.048 mln mt up +1.6% from their January estimate of 1.032 mln mt
— SGS pegged Malaysian palm oil product exports over the Feb 1-25 period at 1.051 mln mt compared to last month’s 1.017 mln mt, up +3.5% on the month
— US Coast Guard on Monday afternoon reopened portion of Mississippi River closed due to oil spill, however there are transit restrictions for vessels moving through the area as clean up continues.
— Reuters on Monday, citing Brazil shipping sources, said Rio Grande port shiploader is damaged after accident and reportedly will take a couple weeks to fix.
— Western Canada 2014 canola crop area is forecast by analysts at Louis Dreyfus at 21.5 mln ha up +7.0% on the year
— Pending Tender: Over the weekend FIHC of Egypt announced they’re seeking 20,000 mt of sunseed oil in a tender to close on Feb 24th. The vegoil is for shipment between Apr 5 to Apr 25
— Pending Tender: Cash vegoil traders say Meditrade in Egypt is looking to buy 30,000 mt of sunseed oil in a tender to close on Feb 27th
— Pending Tender: Cash traders on Friday say March 3rd is deadline in 10,000 mt optional origin Sunseed oil tender floated by Iraq.
— Pending Tender: On Monday Bangladesh announced 2,000 mt Soyoil tender to close on March 19th.
— Liffe Paris May rapeseed futures trading Tuesday down -2.25 euros at 387.75 euros/mt
— Dalian May soybean futures traded +1 yuan higher, Sept futures were up +3 yuan at 4,537 yuan/mt
— Dalian May soymeal futures traded -17 yuan lower at 3,388, Sept futures were up +16 yuan at 3,300 yuan/mt
— Dalian May vegoil futures on Tuesday traded lower, palm oil futures off -10 yuan at 6,114 yuan/mt, soyoil futures were off -8 yuan at 6,788 yuan/mt
— Cash sources on Tuesday said Apr/May/June delivered cash RBD palm oil and palm olein were up +$2.50 both at $862.50/mt
— SGS pegged Malaysian palm oil product exports over the Feb 1-25 period at 1.051 mln mt compared to last month’s 1.017 mln mt, up +3.5% on the month
— CBOT Soybean Volume & Open Interest for February 24th 2014 was 280,786; Open Interest increased +5,762 to 701,468.
— CBOT Soybean Oil Volume & Open Interest for February 24th 2014 was 117,398; Open Interest decreased -8,015 to 316,064.
— CBOT Soybean Meal Volume & Open Interest for February 24th 2014 was 100,108; Open Interest decreased -69 to 318,879.
— Weather: 6-10 Day forecast: Below Normal Temps. Normal to Below Precip
— Outside markets. Crude Oil off -$1.00 @ $101.80; Gold off -$3.70 @ $1334.30 ; Silver off -28c @ $21.76 ; US $ index off -10 pts @ 80.12
LaSalle Street News Cash Markets
— CIF Soybeans steady off 3. Feb. +90 to +95, FH Mar. +86 to +92, Mar. +77 to +84, Apr. +84 to +90, May +76 to +82, June +84 to +95
