Linn Soybeans: USDA Predicts Big Yields, Light Acres

    The soybean market is under light pressure here this morning with the USDA outlook forum putting out some modestly bearish numbers for corn and beans and mostly neutral for wheat. To boot, the export sales report was no help to the bulls and the markets are starting to become overbought after a healthy rally.

    Outside of the export sales and Outlook forum other news flow is slow, which could make the path of least resistance to the downside to close out the week. However anything is possible in this bean market. For the week, beans are +18 ¼. New crop beans are +13. The outlook forum pegged soybean production at 3.55 billion bu versus 3.289 this year; ending stocks were pinned at 285 million bu up from 150 million this year.

    This was on 78.5 million acres harvested at a 45.2 bpa cut (big yields, light acres?). In the export sales report, soybean sales for old crop were a marketing year low at 83k, but still positive with commitments already above the USDA projected total for the year. The report did include decreases of 268,500 mt for unknown and 145,600 mt for China.

    New crop sales came in at 750k. Bean basis bids at the Gulf are firm at +100 with the same logistics keeping bids supported more than they would otherwise be, Decatur is steady at +25H.

    In yesterday’s price action, the soybean market followed through higher overnight, but had trouble holding gains early morning. The market firmed up modestly through the day session but failed to take back out the overnight highs. After the close, March soybeans were 4 higher at $13.58-1/4, while new crop was up 8-1/4. New crop beans stayed strong today, closing right up against the 100 moving average at $11.46.

    Daily volume in soybeans eased 2% on Thursday to 247,535, while open interest was up 7,062 lots on modest fund buying. Revenue Protection is currently at $11.24 with one week to go until the end of price discovery. On the world front, China’s Administration of Customs reported January Soybean imports totaled 5.9 MMT up 23% from a year ago. The US supplied 5.4 of those with Brazil at 116,065 mt.

    LaSalle Street News Top News

    — USDA Soybeans 13/14 Export Sales Net (02/13): 86,300 mt; 14/15 Net: 749,100 mt; expected 200k- 500k mt
    — USDA Soybean Meal 13/14 Export Sales Net (02/13): 227,500 mt; 14/15 Export Sales Net: 65,000 mt; expected 75k-150k mt
    — USDA Soybean Oil 13/14 Export Sales Net (02/13): 11,700 mt; 14/15 Export Sales Net: NONE mt; expected 5k-50k mt
    — USDA Outlook Forum: 2014 US Soybean production is forecast at 3.550 bln bu vs 3.840 bln bu and 3.289 bln bu in 2013
    — USDA Outlook Forum: 2014/15 US Soybean ending stockpiles at 285 mln bu vs 150 mln bu 2013/14 ending stocks
    — USDA Outlook Forum: pegs 2014/15 US soybean exports at 1.600 bln bu vs 1.500 bln in 13/14 period. They forecast crushing at 1.725 bln bu in 2014/15.
    — USDA Outlook Forum: 2014/15 US soybean yields are forecast at 45.2 bu/acre, harvested acres are forecast at 78.5 mln acres
    — USDA Outlook Forum: US 2014/15 all cotton crop size forecast at 16.3 mln bales up from the prior outlook of 15.60 mln bales. Ending stockpiles forecast at 4.6 mln bales up +1.6 mln bales over the prior season. They forecast 14/15 imports of cotton by China at 8.0 mln bales off -27% from last marketing year.
    — USDA Outlook Forum: 2014 soybean acreage forecast at 79.5 mln acres vs Baseline report 78.0 mln acres
    — USDA Outlook Forum: 2014/15 soybean prices to average $9.65/bu
    — USDA Outlook Forum: 2014 corn acreage forecast at 92.0 mln acres vs Baseline report 93.5 mln acres
    — USDA Outlook Forum: 2014/15 corn prices to average $3.90/bu
    — USDA Outlook Forum: 2014 cotton acreage forecast at 11.5 mln acres vs 2013 10.4 mln acres
    — Cash traders on Friday say March 3rd is deadline in 10,000 mt optional origin Sunseed oil tender floated by Iraq.
    — Chinese customs data on Friday pegged January 2014 soybean imports totaled 5.914 mln mt up +23.7% from Jan 2013, the US accounted for 5.411 mln mt of the total
    — Chinese customs data on Friday pegged January 2014 rapeseed imports totaled 584,568 mt up +53% from Jan 2013, Canada accounted for 400,727 mt of the total, while Australia shipped 175,093 mt
    — Indonesia palm oil industry group data for January estimates exports at 1.57 mln mt off -22.5% from December.
    — Baltic Exchange dry bulk freight shipping index rose +11 points on Friday ending the session at 1,175. This week the index rose +3.9% or 45 points from Monday’s close.
    — Mississippi River at St Louis is forecast to rise by up to 6 feet into next week, then fall again, however analysts say this should improve river logistics. Analysts also noted during the first 7 weeks of 2014 barge freight along the Illinois River was down -31% from the 3 year average, but note traffic on the Ohio River was up +41%
    — Argentina ag ministry now pegs 2013/14 soybean crop area at 20.3 mln ha down -500,000 ha from their January estimate.
    — Argentina Ag Ministry estimated Corn acreage steady at 5.7 mln ha in the 2013/14 crop year
    — Buenos Aires Grain Exchange again kept their Argentina soybean crop production estimate at 53.0 mln mt. The report suggested general soybean conditions have improved as recent rains helped in middleeast and north of the areas of national agricultural production.
    — Buenos Aires Grain exchange weekly crop report on Thursday estimated 25.2% of the Argentine sunflower crop has been harvested so far with some 526,384 mt collected.
    — Pending Tender: Over the weekend FIHC of Egypt announced they’re seeking 20,000 mt of sunseed oil in a tender to close on Feb 24th. The vegoil is for shipment between Apr 5 to Apr 25
    — Pending Tender: Cash vegoil traders say Meditrade in Egypt is looking to buy 30,000 mt of sunseed oil in a tender to close on Feb 27th
    — Pending Tender: On Monday Bangladesh announced 2,000 mt Soyoil tender to close on March 19th.
    — Liffe Paris May rapeseed futures on Friday trading up +0.50 euro at 389.50 euros/mt
    — Dalian May soybean futures on Friday traded +7 yuan higher at 4,712 yuan/mt; May soymeal futures lost -23 yuan ending at 3,402 yuan/mt
    — Dalian May vegoil futures were higher in Friday’s session, palm oil futures gained +26 yuan ending at 6,088 yuan/mt, soyoil futures tacked on +6 yuan ending at 6,790 yuan/mt
    — Cash sources on Friday reported March Malaysian cash RBD palm oil and palm olein offers were unchanged at $870.00/mt
    — CBOT Soybean Volume & Open Interest for February 20th 2014 was 247,535; Open Interest increased +7,062 to 702,158.
    — CBOT Soybean Oil Volume & Open Interest for February 20th 2014 was 146,238; Open Interest decreased -5,017 to 325,462.
    — CBOT Soybean Meal Volume & Open Interest for February 20th 2014 was 107,676; Open Interest increased +3,364 to 319,064.
    — Weather: 6-10 Day forecast: Below Normal Temps. Below Normal Precip
    — Outside markets. Crude Oil off -29c @ $102.46; Gold up +$4.70 @ $1321.60; Silver up +7.6c @ $21.76; US $ index up +10 pts @ 80.41

    LaSalle Street News Cash Markets

    — CIF Soybeans steady off 2. FH Feb. +100 to +120, Feb. +93 to +105, Mar. +78 to +84, Apr. +83 to +90, May +75 to +82

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