USDA increased its export forecasts for corn, soybeans and wheat in Monday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand report.
Corn exports increased 150 million bushels, while wheat exports were increased 50 mb. USDA increased soybean exports for the 2013-14 crop year by 15 mb.
The changes lowered corn and wheat ending stocks below the range of pre-report estimates. Soybean ending stocks were held steady as USDA offset the increased exports by adding 5 mb of imports and cutting residual use by 10 mb.
USDA also made several revisions to South American corn and soybean production estimates.
Monday’s reports should be viewed as bullish for corn and wheat and bearish for soybeans, according to DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom.
Corn ending stocks declined to 1.481 billion bushels on the increased export forecast, which is below the range of pre-report estimates. The stocks-to-use ratio declined from 12.4% to 11.1%.
USDA also trimmed global ending stocks for corn to 157.3 mmt, a 2.93 mmt cut. USDA increased 2012-13 production by a little more than 1 mmt while increasing 2013-14 international feed usage by 4 mmt, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 16.7% that is down from 17.1% last month.
In South America, USDA held Brazilian production steady at 70 mmt while trimming Argentina’s production by 1 mmt to 24 mmt.
USDA left its domestic ending stocks figure for soybeans unchanged at 150 mb, toward the high end of pre-report estimates. The stocks-to-use ratio stayed the same as last month at 4.5%.
USDA expects a 5 mb increase in imports from Canada. Exports increased 15 mb to 1.51 billion bushels, “reflecting the record pace of shipments and sales through January,” USDA said. Residual use was trimmed by 10 mb “on tightening supplies driven by heavy use to date and large outstanding export sales.”
Globally, USDA forecast an increase in ending stocks to 73.01 mmt, largely on higher estimates for global production and lower forecasted crush demand.
USDA increased Brazilian soybean production estimates by 1 mmt to 90 mmt, in line with forecasts from South American agencies. Hot, dry weather through mid-January diminished yield potential in Argentina, lowering production to 54 mmt from 54.5 mmt, USDA said.
USDA pegged U.S. wheat ending stocks at 558 million bushels, a decline of 50 mb from last month that left the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 22.7%. That’s down from 25.3%.
Imports are likely to increase 10 mb “as railroad backlogs and other logistical problems slow Canadian wheat shipments to Pacific Coast terminals and encourage additional shipments of Hard Red Spring wheat into the U.S. market,” USDA said.
USDA offset the import increase by a 10 mb increase in food usage, which left the 50 mb increase in exports responsible for the decline in ending stocks.
Global ending stocks declined 1.67 mmt to 183.73 mmt on lower beginning stocks in Argentina and Russia and a 0.8 mmt reduction in world production.