Nate Smith - 11/12/09 8:53am
Soybeans ended Wednesdays session 4 cents higher. Soybeans traded in a 22 cent range. Volatility has been troublesome for many traders as the market tries to figure out bearish fundamentals, money flow, excessive liquidity and a weakening $USD. Talk of big money chasing these markets has some wondering if bearish fundamentals mean anything anymore. For the Week so far January Soybeans are up 9 ¼ cents including last nights trade however the range for the week is 67 ½ cents This is difficult battle is further illustrated on Wednesday as volume was off from recent sessions indicating the small speculator is struggling to trade these markets. Volume in Soybeans yesterday was 110,421 off from recent sessions trading 130,000 to 160,000. Meal traded 46,656, and Oil traded 65,741. Funds were net buyers of an estimated 2,000 Soybeans, 2,500 Oil and 500 Meal.
Opening Call lower. The $USD is trading higher this morning and is expected to exert some pressure on soy prices today. Crude oil is trading lower down .87 cents. China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center released their monthly crop report and left soybean production unchanged. Chinese soy importers are expected to slow their purchases in coming weeks after earlier heavy bookings. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentine Soybean plantings at 33.8% complete vs 21.7% last week and 40% a year ago. Expect Jan beans to offer resistance at 969 this morning and for opening calls to weaken with the current uptrend in the Dollar. Overnight Chinese Soybean, Meal and Oil Futures closed higher
Opening call. Beans 10 cents lower, Meal $3.00 lower and Oil .60 lower.
** USDA Weekly Export Sales report will be released Friday, November 13, 2009, due to Veterans Holiday instead of its usual Thursday release. **USDA reports private sale of 116,000 mt of US Soybeans to China for the 09/10 MY -- Argentine Grain Exchange leaves 2009/10 Soybean area planted unchanged in latest report at 19 mln ha, same as last week -- Argentine Sunseed area planted was lowered to 1.66 mln ha from last week's 1.75 mln ha in BA weekly crop progress report -- While Soybean harvest had picked up in Argentina, Corn planting progress in weekly Buenos Aires exchange report shows it still behind last year's pace of 74.3% with most recent estimate at 69% complete -- Weekly crop progress in Argentina shows Soybean acreage planted jumped to 34% complete up 12 percentage points from the prior week, acc. to Buenos Aires Grain Exchange -- Latest report by China's CGNOIC leaves 2009 Soybean production for that country unchanged at 14.5 mln mt from prior estimate. However its 6.7% lower than last year's crop -- Latest report by China's CGNOIC leaves 2009 corn production for that country at 163 mln mt -- Beginning Nov 15, China will require domestic canola importers to receive permits before signing contracts for Aussie or Canada canola. Permits are to designed to help stop the spread the blackleg disease domestically. Cargos arriving with the disease canola must be in ports away from Chinese canola growing areas. -- Malaysian cash refined palm oil product prices rose on Thursday from the prior day, while cash crude palm oil also rose from prompt & December delivery -- Industry group in Malaysia says Nov production of palm oil could drop by 25% to 1.48 mln mt of output as heavy rains weigh on yields -- Pending Tender: November 4th is deadline in USDA's CCC buy tender of 5,990 mt of US Soymeal for donation to Guatemala. Shipment is expected between Nov 25 and Dec 5 -- Pending Tender: Egypt is looking to purchase 30,000 mt of vegoil by Nov 5th for FH December arrival according to traders -- Pending Tender: 10,000 mt palm olein tender floated by PEC of India, the tender will close on November 11, acc. to the company -- Liffe Feb rapeseed futures were off -0.75 euro at 269.0 euros/mt. -- Dalian Soybean futures for Sept delivery gained 13 yuan in overnight trade to end the session at 3,730 yuan/mt; Active May soymeal futures on the Dalian exchange gained 23 yuan to 2,903 yuan/mt, while May soyoil futures also posted a 22 yuan gain -- Malaysian cash refined palm oil product prices rose on Thursday from the prior day, while cash crude palm oil also rose from prompt & December delivery -- Globex Soybean Vol. ; Pit Vol. ; Open Interest Change: -- Weather: 6-10 day Forecast: Above Normal Temps. Below Precip West, Above East -- Outside markets: Energy Complex -0.63 at $78.65; Gold & Silver: +0.4 at $1115.0 & -0.042 at $17.495; US $ +0.145 at $75.405
Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady off 2 to 9. Nov. +45 to +50, LH Nov. +50 to +57, Dec. +68 to +72, Jan. +71 to +74, Feb. +55 to +70,Mar. +30 to +65, April +35 to +45, May +35 to +45