Sunbelt Ag News

DOANE: Cotton Comment 

Audio: Cotton Conference Call - Ag Marketing Network panel discusses latest USDA report, possible market direction 11-12

Southeast Cotton Harvest Reports: Some progress, but Ida is a concern 11-12

Delta Cotton Harvest Reports: Struggling To Finish The 2009 Crop 11-12

Closing Cotton: Closes Lower in Heavy Dealings 11-12

Closing Grain: Impressive Session for Soybeans 11-12

Closing Rice: Recent Gains Firmed 11-12

U.S. Diesel Fuel Cost Survey 11-12

U.S. Stock Market News 11-12

Texas: Cotton Grower Happy with Average Crops 11-12

Harvest Conditions Need Careful Drying 11-12

Kansas: K-State Scientist Reviews Options for Late-Planted Wheat 11-12

Midday Grain: Soybeans Stronger 11-12

Midday Livestock: Cattle Futures on Defensive at Midday, Pressured by Lower Feedlot Cash  11-12

Linn Corn Commentary: Strikes Again 11-12

Linn Wheat Commentary: Ended Higher 11-12

Linn Soybean Commentary: Drift Higher 11-12

Kansas: `Keeping the Family Farming´ Workshops Set for January in Beloit, Hiawatha 11-12

The Pain of Technology Adoption 11-12

Opening Cotton: Extends Sharp Midweek Downturn 11-12

Opening Grains: All Lower Overnight 11-12

Opening Livestock: Lean Hogs Likely to Open Lower 11-12

K. Good's Farm Policy: Climate Issues and Agriculture; Food Security; and Food Safety 11-12

Virginia Cotton: Harvest, Lint Quality and Yield  11-11

Closing Livestock: Cattle Futures Plunge Lower in The Face of Faltering Feedlot Sales 11-11

Arkansas: Clock Ticking for Wheat Growers 11-11

Georgia: Volatile October Sets Record Temps 11-11

New Tech Tractors that Talk 11-11

Farmers' Program, Industry's Gain 11-11

Resistant Weeds in the Future: Harder to Kill in Soybeans, Rice, Corn, Wheat 11-11

Kentucky Producer Wraps Season Up 11-11

Texas: Subsurface Drip Irrigation - If it works here, it will work anywhere 11-11

Georgia Pecans: Moderate deliveries, export interest widens 11-10

Midsouth Pecans: Very light farmer deliveries, slow but steady demand 11-10

Peanuts: USDA reduces 2009 crop estimate by 1%, sees 30% drop from 2008 11-10

Georgia: New Systems Help Water Applications 11-10

Mississippi: Harvest Rains Hurt Crops 11-10

USDA Reports Preview 11-10

Iowa Farmer Sees Crop Rotation Working 11-10

Pesticide Levels Decline in Corn Belt Rivers 11-10

Wet ethanol production process yields more ethanol and more co-products 11-10

Brazil Readies Cotton Retaliation Against U.S. 11-10

Shortage of Dairy-Quality Hay 11-10

Arkansas: Sun Powers Harvest Progress 11-9

Fruit and Vegetables from STAT

More Ag News | Grain Futures Newswire

Sugar, U.S. Nut Markets

Upcoming Events:

(FD: field day; SS: scout schools)

Kansas State University Management, Analysis and Strategic Thinking Program (MAST), November 16-17. 

Mississippi: Delta Area Rice Meeting and Dinner, November 19 at 6 p.m., Bolivar County Extension Auditorium, Cleveland.

Texas: Agrilife conducts public training on: prescribed burning; comparison of wheat, oats and triticale; herbicide application equipment, November 19,Schleicher County Civic Center, located just south of Eldorado.

Texas High Plains Ag Conference, December 2, AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Lubbock. Contact Scott at 806-775-1680, or r-scott@ag.tamu.edu

Texas 21st Annual Plant Protection Assn. Conference "Application of Agricultural Technology and Management for Changing Times", December 2 & 3, Brazos Center, Bryan.

California: Using Blue Bees In California Almonds, December 7, Masonic Family Center, Chico.

California: Using Blue Bees In California Almonds, December 8, UCCE Stanislaus County Office, Modesto.

Mississippi 2009 Row Crop Short Course, December 7-9, 10 am, Bost Extension Center, Mississippi State University, Registration Form.

Alabama Precision Agriculture and Field Crops Conference, December 8, 8 am, Wind Creek Hotel, Atmore.

California: Almond Industry Conference, Dec. 9-10, Modesto.

2009 USA Rice Outlook Conference, December 9-11, New Orleans Marriott, New Orleans. For more information, contact Jeanette Davis, jdavis@usarice.com.

2010 National Cotton Council Beltwide Cotton Conferences, January 4-7. New Orleans Marriott Hotel and Sheraton New Orleans Hotel.

Kansas: `Keeping the Family Farming´ Workshop, Jan. 9 & 23, Zion Lutheran Church, Beloit (2 sessions).

National Conservation Systems Cotton & Rice Conference
Tunica, MS - Jan. 12-13.

Kansas: `Keeping the Family Farming´ Workshop, Jan. 16 & 30, Fisher Community Center, Hiawatha (2 sessions).

North Carolina Southern Cotton Growers/Southeastern Cotton Ginners Annual Meeting, Jan. 20-23, 2 pm, The Westin, Charlotte.

Louisiana 2010 Agricultural Outlook Conference: “Keeping
Louisiana Agriculture Competitive,"
Jan. 21, State Evacuation Facility, LSU AgCenter's Dean Lee REC, Alexandria.

Kansas: `Keeping the Family Farming´ Workshop, Jan. 9 & 23, Zion Lutheran Church, Beloit (2 sessions).

Kansas: `Keeping the Family Farming´ Workshop, Jan. 16 & 30, Fisher Community Center, Hiawatha (2 sessions).

Louisiana: 75th Annual Livestock Show Feb. 13-20. Lamar-Dixon Expo Center, Gonzales.

RTWG (Rice Technical Working Group) 33rd Conference, Feb. 22-25, Biloxi, MS.

To list an event, contact Owen Taylor

 

 

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The Linn Group


Corn Commentary - Strikes Again

James Riley - 11/12/09 9:24am


The corn market closed about unchanged today as it couldn’t hold early gains and traded over $4. The December contract closed down ˝ near the lows of the day as it traded above the $4 level and couldn’t hold those gains for more than a couple of minutes. The market sold off and made lows before making a recovery near the end of the session but late selling took prices lower on the day. The outside markets were relatively quiet yesterday with crude, stocks and the US$ all closing slightly higher. Corn reached the highs of the day early in the session and remained under pressure throughout the day trading back and forth. With the lack of any new fundamental news and the outside markets mixed, we saw little direction in grains on Wednesday. The report on Tuesday was viewed as bullish because of the reduction of in yield and production, but the carry out number should not be considered bullish, but there is still a lot of assumptions in what final carryout will be at the end. The weather remains good for harvest through the weekend before most of the Midwest will be getting some rain that will stall harvest for a few days. The volume was huge yesterday at 461,000 contracts and funds were light buyers of 3,000 contracts.

Overnight, corn traded unchanged, slightly lower most of the night before selling off very early in the morning and closing significantly lower. The December contract closed about 8 cents lower which was actually off the lows last night. Weekly export sales are delayed until tomorrow because of the holiday yesterday. With the trading action yesterday and last night, it seems to further tell us that corn is in a trading range and you want to sell rally’s and buy breaks until proven wrong. The $4 psychological level in corn strikes again as the December contract traded over that level and immediately found sellers and couldn’t hold those gains. The question being asked by many traders/analysts is what can be done with $4 corn. The market seems to be telling us that nobody wants to own corn at that price level, but are willing to own it at slightly lower levels. The corn market should be under pressure this morning with the US$ higher and crude and stocks lower. We will see if the market finds any buying down at these levels or do we see continued presses because of harvest pressure we are seeing this week. We are hearing about elevators shutting down or closing early because of the extensive drying of wet corn. Corn will be called 6-8 lower, but the US$ has moved higher since grains closed, so we could see more pressure.

Globex Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low Volume ZCZ9 386^0 -8^0 393^6 382^4 6706 ZCH10 401^0 -8^2 408^6 397^4 1497 ZCK10 411^6 -7^4 418^4 408^0 282 ZCN10 421^0 -6^6 427^0 420^4 118

Early Opening Calls: off 6-8 cents

Top News ** USDA Weekly Export Sales report will be released Friday, November 13, 2009, due to Veterans Holiday instead of its usual Thursday release. -- Strategie Grains lowers EU Corn crop to 56.2 mln mt a drop of 730,000 mt from the prior forecast on lower expectations of output from Hungary, Romania & France -- Argentine Grain Exchange leaves 2009/10 Corn area planted unchanged in latest report at 1.875 mln ha, same as last week -- While Soybean harvest had picked up in Argentina, Corn planting progress in weekly Buenos Aires exchange report shows it still behind last year's pace of 74.3% with most recent estimate at 69% complete -- Latest report by China's CGNOIC leaves 2009 Soybean production for that country unchanged at 14.5 mln mt from prior estimate. However its 6.7% lower than last year's crop -- Latest report by China's CGNOIC leaves 2009 corn production for that country at 163 mln mt -- Grain exports from the Ukraine are now expected by private forecaster at 17 mln mt, while the crop harvest was expected at 48 mln mt, compared to the 45 mln mt gov't expectations -- Private crop forecaster group in Australia says reduced output in key states of New South Wales, Western Australia from dry October & wet harvest period will bring 09/10 crop to 22.7 mln mt down 400,000 mt from prior forecast -- Higher German biofuel taxes hurt production at German based Verbio biofuel maker, they note Jan-Sep output fell by 12,000 mt to 288,000 mt in that period -- By the end of 2009, a $350 million agriculture fund to purchase 50,000 ha of Romanian farmland, hopes to be finalized by Miro Holdings of the UK & Pharos Group of United Arab Emirates -- Pending Tender: Japan's Ag Ministry also announced 100,000 mt SBS feed Barley tender, with bids due by Nov 18th -- Pending Tender: 45,000 mt of EU Corn was tender for by Israeli group on Tuesday, bids must be submitted by Nov 5th, they're also seeking 32,000 mt of US Corn in a separate tender also on Thursday Nov 5th -- Pending Tender: 10,000 mt of European Barley was tender for by Israeli group on Tuesday, bids must be submitted by Nov 5th -- Pending Tender: 10,000 mt of Feed Barley is being sought in Nov 4th tender by Oman, acc. to EU merchandisers. Delivery was expected Nov 20-Dec 5. -- Pending Tender: Turkey's state run grainary will hold a sales tender for up to 100,000 mt of feed Barley on November 12th -- EU Barley intervention stocks climbed 263,000 from German farmers in the latest week -- 100,000 mt Barley tender was concluded by Jordan on Thursday, for reported price of $185/mt CIF and of Black Sea origin, acc. to traders. 50k mt of the grain was for FH Jan shipment while the balance was for LH Jan -- Liffe Jan corn futures were off -0.50 euro at 134.50 euros/mt. -- Dalian Corn futures for May delivery fell 3 yuan in trade last night, ending the session at 1,751 yuan/mt. Other delivery months were mainly lower -- Globex Corn Vol: ; Pit Vol.: ; Open Interest change: -- Weather: 6-10 day Forecast: Above Normal Temps. Below Precip West, Above East -- Outside markets: Energy Complex -0.63 at $78.65; Gold & Silver: +0.4 at $1115.0 & -0.042 at $17.495; US $ +0.145 at $75.405

Cash Markets -- CIF Corn steady off 1. FH Nov. +52 to ??, Nov. +49 to +52, Dec. +53 to +56, Jan. +44 to +47, Feb. +44 to +47 ,Mar. +44 to +47, April +40 to +42, May +40 to +42, June +40 to +42, July +40 to +42

TREND:

Interesting that the firming $US did not have much of a negative influence on gold, crude oil or equities today. Not sure the tie is broken but the $US does not have a lot of down side remaining. Support should surface at 74 to 74.50 so not willing to press. Came close to developing reversal trade that could bottom that market --- but not a currency trader here?

Corn has a reversal down from a test of 4.00 and Fib retracement levels. Has still broken out of the recent flag formation so will be interesting to see if it can hold. Look for a test of the 4.13 highs on the weekly chart. If we are able to break above that it may point to a change in the upside potential. The Z/H spreads are now within 1 cent of full carry. Time to roll short hedges forward even if on a scale

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